Energy 2026: will your bills increase again?

After several years of turmoil on the energy markets, the year 2026 is beginning with a paradoxical situation.

While wholesale electricity prices are generally on the decline, energy bills However, they continue to weigh on business budgets.

This discrepancy reflects a profound transformation of the French energy system. The end of ARENH changes the rules of the game, with prices now exposed to the market.

The evolution of your energy bill in 2026 will mainly depend on your contract and your consumption profile.

Good news: you can take action today.

Anticipating, negotiating and optimizing your energy budget is possible thanks to concrete and accessible levers.

Sirenergies gives you the keys to take back control of your energy bill in 2026.

End of ARENH: a major turning point for electricity prices

The replacement of the ARENH mechanism

December 31, 2025 marked the end ofARENH (Regulated Access to Historic Nuclear Electricity).

This mechanism contributed to stabilizing bills, by allowing alternative suppliers to buy part of EDF's nuclear electricity at a regulated price (€42/MWh).

Since the 1^Er January, ARENH is replaced by two new devices :

• The Universal Nuclear Payment (VNU), based on the principle of taxation — redistribution.
• Les Nuclear Production Allocation Contracts (CAPN), reserved for major industrial consumers to secure volumes and prices over the long term.

‍How are consumers protected from high prices?

With the end of ARENH, We go from a controlled price in advance to a market price adjusted afterwards.

UNV aims to protect consumers from excessive increases.

Concretely:

1. EDF sells all of its nuclear electricity production freely, on the markets or via direct contracts.
2. If sales prices exceed production costs, EDF pays a portion of its excess revenue to the State.
3. This sum is redistributed to consumers in the form of discounts on their bills.

UNV: what impact on electricity bills in 2026?

According to the public authorities, “in view of the low prices of French carbon-free energy on wholesale markets”, UNV is not expected to be activated in 2026. 

No impact is expected for consumers with regulated sales rates or who have subscribed to offers indexed to the TRV.

While these announcements are intended to be reassuring for 2026, the backing of TRV to the market requires vigilance.

For market offers, uncertainty prevails.

Emmanuelle Wargon, president of the Commission for Energy Regulation (CRE) believes that he is:

“almost impossible to calculate an average evolution”.

The impact will depend on the date the contract was taken out and the consumption profile.

There is only one solution to protect yourself: Follow the markets, compare offers, (re) negotiate contracts and adjust its purchasing strategy.

Currently, the forecasts of Baseload electricity prices for 2026 stabilize between 58 and 70 €/MWh. This wholesale rate is dictated by the end of the mechanism ARENH, the performance level of the Nuclear park French, as well as the evolution of the prices of gasses and quotas of CO2.

The rise of renewable energies also plays a key role in this price balance.

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Taxes and transport: the real culprits for the rise in electricity bills?

TURPE 7: why transporting electricity is more expensive

Entered into force on 1^Er August 2025 for four years, the TURPE 7 (tariff for the use of public electricity networks) Is the main driver of structural increases in bills, regardless of the price per kWh.

The strong increase observed in 2025 (+ 7.7%) should make it possible to:

• Financing the adaptation of networks to the energy transition (development of renewable energies, electric mobility).
• Strengthen the resilience of networks in the face of climate change.

The next evolution is expected on 1^Er August 2026. 

The increase is expected to follow inflation, unless the regulatory course changes.

Excise duty on electricity: an increase to 1^Er February?

At 1^Er February 2026, the excise duty on electricity — including the former TICFE — should Increase mechanically with indexing.

Excluding the 2026 Finance Act, the rates should change as follows, including the ZNI increase to finance tariff equalisation in non-interconnected areas:

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Source: Bofip government taxes

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PLF 2026: the excise duty on electricity still under debate

The 2026 finance bill proposes the gradual reduction of normal electricity rates by €0.9/MWh over two years (including €0.5/MWh from 2026).

A Senate amendment proposes to reduce individual excise duties by €3/MWh and corporate excise duties by €0.42/MWh.

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CTA: a modest decrease from 2026

On January 3, 2027, Roland Lescure, Minister of the Economy, made a surprise announcement: the 25% decrease in the Delivery Rate Contribution (CTA) on electricity bills. Applied to the subscription, this tax finances the pension plan for the electricity and gas industries.

This decrease will be progressive, at a rate of 5% per year Starting on 1^Er February 2026.

However, the reduction in the energy bill remains modest. Estimated at around ten euros per year for a household, it could go up to 200 euros per year for a baker.

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How will your gas bill change in 2026?

The electrification of uses is a priority for France. This orientation is directly reflected in the gas bill.

Despite the fall in wholesale prices on the market, the bill continued to increase in 2026, due to regulated taxes and costs:

• Subscription price : the gas subscription rate increased to 1^Er January 2026. For a household heated with gas, it went from €330.80 per year to €343.90 (+0.20%).
  This evolution decided by CRE includes the increase in commercial expenses and the financing of Biogas Production Certificates (CPB).
• Excise duty on gas : after a freeze between 2018 and 2023, the State is continuing its catch-up phase.
  In 2026, excise duties could increase again. Its future is suspended from the vote of the 2026 Finance Law. In particular, the Senate proposes an increase in the rate of €4.40/MWh at 1^Er February.
• Gas transport costs : as every year, the regulated costs will be revised, on 1^Er April for the transport (ATRT) and storage (TSS), and at 1^Er July for the distribution (ATRD).

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How to anticipate and optimize your 2026 energy bill

Understanding your energy bill to better negotiate

An electricity bill is divided into three blocks:

• The price of the energy consumed.
• Network usage costs (TURPE).
• Taxes (excise, CTA, VAT).

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You can act on these three components. It's not just the price that's negotiable. 

To reduce your energy bill, you can:

• Optimizing TURPE by adjusting the subscribed power and the price version.
• Take advantage of reduced rates and exemptions excise duties, accessible under conditions (electro-intensive businesses, bakeries).

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Analyze your energy contract to track hidden costs

Electricity contracts also hide hidden costs, all negotiable :

• Additional application and management fees.
• Overpower penalties.
• Penalties for early contract termination.

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Reducing your electricity bill: the checklist

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Looking to reduce your 2026 electricity bill?

With Sirenergies, analyze your contracts and invoices, identify the most efficient optimization levers and secure your post-ARENH energy budget.

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Reduce your energy consumption sustainably

Beyond contracts, reducing your electricity consumption remains the most effective lever. Cumulative solutions exist for all budgets:

• Structuring your sourcing and purchasing strategy with an expert, to better buy your electricity, (re) negotiate your contracts and secure your budget.
• Deploy sobriety actions, d'ee, with a energy audit to identify areas of savings.
• Les Energy Saving Certificates (CEE) reduce the cost of investments.
• Adopt proactive management thanks to energy management buildings and equipment.
• Investing inPhotovoltaic self-consumption to reduce dependence on the market and strengthen your energy autonomy.

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Regulatory reminder: the Tertiary decree requires companies and communities with more than 1,000 m² of tertiary buildings to reduce their consumption by 40% in 2030, 50% in 2040 and 60% in 2050.

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Conclusion

In 2026, electricity switched to greater dependence on markets. This transformation reduces budget visibility, with more unpredictable energy bills.

Faced with this new situation, anticipating your contracts, controlling your consumption and managing your energy are no longer options: they are strategic imperatives.

With Sirenergies, negotiate, optimize and secure your 2026 budget. Stop having to pay your electricity bill. Let's reduce it together.

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