Why is energy consumption increasing in the world?

After two years of pandemic followed by the war in Ukraine, Europe is plunged into one of the most serious energy crises in its history. Faced with this challenge, the government has launched an energy sobriety plan.

However, it now seems inevitable that global energy demand will continue to grow. For what reasons? What are the reasons for this? What is the situation by country and by energy source?

So many questions on which SirEnergies will try to shed some light.

What are the main energy-consuming countries in the world?

The countries consuming the most energy per capita

Energy consumption per inhabitant varies widely around the world:

• It is the highest in Iceland and Qatar, respectively 697.4 and 611.3 GJ/inhabitant;
• Next, with 2 times less consumption, are Canada and the United States, 340.3 and 282 GJ/inhabitant respectively.
• Then, with 3 times less consumption, Russia and Australia, 224.1 and 212.5 GJ/inhabitant respectively.
• With 4 times less consumption, France and Germany, respectively 150.5 and 148.3 GJ/inhabitant.
• Then with 6 times less consumption, China, or 101.5 GJ/inhabitant.
• And finally, the countries of the African continent with 27.4 GJ/inhabitant.

From these figures, let us remember that:

• On average, an OECD inhabitant consumes 165.9 GJ/inhabitant, compared to the global average of 79.1 GJ/inhabitant;
• An American consumes 2 times more than a European, who himself consumes 1.5 times more than a Chinese person, as can be seen below:

Energy consumption per inhabitant is impacted by lifestyles, in particular because of:

• From climate, as shown by Iceland and Qatar, which are located at the extremes;
• Of theeconomic activity, as shown by the OECD countries.

The main energy-consuming countries today

In fact, the 3 main energy-consuming countries in the world are:

1. China,
2. The United States,
3. India.

Indeed, developed or developing countries are also the largest consumers of energy. The factors that most influence a country's energy consumption are:

• Lifestyles;
• The level of development;
• The size of the population.

The global growth in energy consumption

In 40 years, global energy demand has doubled:

• In 1978 it was 7 Gtoe (billion tons of oil equivalent);
• In 2018 it was 14.3 Gtep.

This growth averaged 1.8% per year over 40 years. Since the advent of coal in the 1850s, global energy consumption has never stopped growing:

On a global scale, we observe that The energy mix is an ever more important thread and that one primary energy source has never been replaced by another.

Even if, in France, we see Coal like an energy of the past, globally it is not the case: we have never consumed as much coal as we do today.

Globally, there has never been a transition from one energy to another.

The countries that have emitted the most CO₂ in nearly 300 years

Our use of fossil fuels is so important that it is closely linked to the CO₂ we emit and to Global warming.

During the various COPs, one of the major challenges of negotiations between countries is the fact that some countries pollute much more than others. China, which produces 75% of its energy from coal, is often singled out.

However, since the start of the industrial era, China has emitted 2 times less than the US or the EU, as shown by the infographic produced by Our World in Data:

What is the most used energy in the world?

Distribution of energy sources in the world

Unsurprisingly, Oil is the most used energy in the world.

Energy consumption is mainly divided between:

• Oil: 33%
• Coal: 27%
• Natural gas: 24%

These fossil fuels, which are carbon by nature, represent 84% of global primary energy consumption.

According to The IPCC, to meet the Paris Agreement commitment and limit warming to 1.5°C by 2050, the use of coal, oil and gas will have to decrease by 95, 60 and 45%, respectively.

Oil

Despite the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, oil consumption has never stopped growing and represents today 42% of global energy consumption.

In France, oil represented 28% of primary energy consumption in 2020, just after Nuclear energy (40%) and before natural gas (16%).

France produces 1% of its hydrocarbon needs from a few deposits located in the Paris basin and in the Aquitaine basin.

In 2020, the largest supplier of crude oil to France was Kazakhstan (15.6%), followed by the United States (12.7%) and Saudi Arabia (11.8%). Next are Norway, Algeria and Nigeria for 10% each, and finally Russia with 8.7%.

Coal

The year 2022 was a record year for global coal consumption, according to the IEA, with 8 billion tons, 50% of which was consumed by China.

Between 2000 and 2018, the installed capacity of thermal power plants Coal-fired power in the world has doubled, from 1 to 2 million MW installed according to Carbon Brief. The majority of these new power plants were installed in China, India and South Africa.

In France, coal consumption concerns:

• The Émile-Huchet thermal power plant in Saint-Avold (Moselle) where unit 6 of 600 MW, stopped on 31 March 2022, has reopened, due to the energy crisis and the unavailability of the nuclear power plant;
• The Cordemais thermal power plant (Pays de la Loire), which has 2 units of 600 MW, or 1,200 MW, which is scheduled to close in 2026.

Natural gas

Every second, as simulated by the Planetoscope site, 110,000 m³ of natural gas are consumed in the world, i.e. 3.5 billion m³ per year.

The main producing countries are:

In France, the discovery in 1951 of the Lacq deposit in the Aquitaine basin made it possible to partially supply the network from 1957 to 2013.

In 2021, France imports natural gas from Norway (36%), Algeria, the Netherlands and Nigeria (8% each).

Finally, the share of Russian gas imports, which was 17% in 2021, now represents only 7% due to the consequences of the war in Ukraine.

Energy density and tons of oil

Energy density represents energy per unit mass. Thus, 1 ton of oil (about 7 barrels) corresponds to:

• 3 tons of wood (≈ 7 cubic meters);
• 1.3 tons of coal;
• 1,200 m³ of natural gas;
• 0.5 grams of uranium-235.

Oil being easy to carry and energetically dense, it is widely used in vehicles and has contributed to the rise of the automobile, while waiting for the rise of the electric car.

What will the demand for energy be in 2050?

In the world

By 2050, global energy consumption could grow by 50% !

This increase could even reach nearly 70% in developing countries, or even 100% in Asia (including China and India).

Outside the OECD, this growth is explained by:

• Strong economic growth and increased access to energy;
• Rapid population growth, especially in Africa.

In OECD countries, consumption could grow by only 15% due to lower economic and population growth, and progress in ee.

In France

In France, several scenarios by 2050:

• RTE, with” Energy Futures 2050 ”, forecasts a 40% drop in energy consumption in 2050.

• ADEME proposes scenarios where more than 70% of the supply is based on renewables and where electricity becomes predominant.
• The ANCRE scenario for the LTECV forecasts a 50% reduction in final energy consumption in 2050 (ref. 2012) and a decrease of more than a third in primary energy consumption between 2015 and 2050.

What energies are affected by these developments?

According to The IEA, the global consumption of all energy sources will grow by 2050, and fossil fuels will remain the majority in the energy mix with 69% (compared to 80% in 2018).

What solutions to reduce our energy consumption by 2050?

The energy sobriety plan

In the current context, the Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, presented on 6 October 2022 A sobriety plan aimed at reducing France's energy consumption.

This plan is based on 4 pillars:

• Energy sobriety to consume less;
• Energy efficiency to consume differently;
• Accelerating the development of renewables ;
• The relaunch of French nuclear industry.

This plan recalls the policy implemented under Valéry Giscard d'Estaing: “In France, we don't have oil, but we have ideas! ”. As in 1976, energy savings are required:

• 19°C maximum in offices;
• Limitation to 110 km/h on the highway for state agents;
• Light ads turn off between 1 a.m. and 6 a.m.

France's energy futures in 2050

RTE (” Energy Futures 2050 ”) shows that energy consumption must fall by 40% in France, while electricity consumption must increase by 50%.

RTE recommends a strategy around 3 major axes:

• energy efficiency;
• The increased use of Biomass ;
• The electrification of uses (electric vehicles, charging stations, etc.).

All scenarios require:

• The development of wind and photovoltaic farms ;
• Hydrogen decarbonized for heavy transport and industry;
• The resizing of the electricity transmission network.

As the IEA points out, there is every reason to believe that energy consumption will continue to grow in the world by 2050 for several reasons:

• It has never stopped growing since the beginning of the industrial era;
• Economic growth (GDP) and energy consumption are correlated;
• The countries of the African continent will experience major demographic and economic growth.

However, at the end of September, European Energy Ministers set a target of reducing gross electricity consumption in the Union by 10%. In France, the government has launched an ambitious energy sobriety plan.

We can see that the latter is bearing fruit: consumption has fallen over the last 4 weeks by − 6.5% compared to the same period from 2014 to 2019.

There is hope that the EU can find solutions and show the way for other countries in the world to move towards more energy efficiency, less consumption and fewer CO₂ emissions.