Summarize with AI
2025 Energy Market: Between Crises, Tensions and Hopes
Mis à jour le
March 6, 2026
9
Min reading
2025, a year of energetic chiaroscuro?
Between tariff reforms, geopolitical turbulence, budgetary tensions, the rise of climate scepticism and new energy challenges, the French and global landscape has been profoundly shaken up.
However, behind the crises, hope dominates, with record investment in clean energies, a rise in renewable energies and a revival of nuclear power.
Looking back on a perhaps pivotal year, where the energy transition, put to the test, has shown its resilience.
Electricity and gas markets: a fragile return to balance
Electricity prices: between lull and turbulence
In 2025, the electricity market returned to more moderate price levels, far from the peaks observed in 2022 and 2023.
According to RTE, the average spot price in the first half of the year was around €67/MWh compared to €111/MWh in 2023. However, this level remains “relatively high”, due to the rise in gas prices at the beginning of the year and a severe winter.
But this appeasement should not mask the high market volatility.
Between negative prices Record high in spring, a summer surge and rapid monthly oscillations, the dynamics remain difficult to predict, due to several factors: the evolution of gas prices, the availability of nuclear power, variations in demand and the level of renewable production.
Gas prices: a gradual decrease to watch
In 2025, the gas market followed a downward trajectory, driven by a relatively abundant supply and the normalization of markets.
After a peak at the beginning of the year, wholesale prices have stabilized in the second half of the year around €30/MWh.
This drop reflects a calming of the markets, thanks to the diversification of supplies, the influx of American LNG, moderate demand and comfortable stocks.
Ceasefire talks between the United States, Ukraine and Russia have also raised hopes for an easing of tensions over Russian gas.
It's the perfect time to review your buy positions.
{{ask-sourcing=” /ctas "}}
France: a troubled energy year, between reforms and uncertainties
TURPE 7, Excise, VAT: cascading price increases
The year 2025 did not spare energy bills, with a succession of price increases:
- TURP 7 : the 1Er February 2025, the Tariff for the use of public electricity networks (TURPE) jumped by 7.7% to finance renewable energies, electric mobility and the adaptation of networks in the face of climate change.
- Despite a slight decrease in the 1Er In July, its level remains higher than in 2024.
- Excise duty on electricity and gas : at 1Er In August 2025, the excise on electricity was raised, while the excise on gas fell. Despite opposing developments, they are both reaching a higher price than before the energy crisis. Since 2025, they have also been increased by €4.89/MWh to finance tariff equalisation in Non-Interconnected Areas (ZNI).
- VAT: 2025 marked the end of French specificity with the application of a single VAT rate of 20% on all components of electricity and gas bills.
{{ask-invoice=” /ctas "}}
The off-peak hours reform
2025 saw the entry into force of the reform of Peak and off-peak hours (HP/HC), which could profoundly change electricity consumption patterns.
Deployed progressively since the 1Er November and until the end of 2027, this reform aims to rebalancing electricity supply and demand. The objective: to encourage people to shift some of their electricity consumption into the day, when renewable energy production is the most abundant.
In concrete terms, the reform provides for:
- Maintaining at least 5 off-peak hours at night.
- A maximum of 3 off-peak hours during the day, between 11 am and 5 pm.
- A differentiation of off-peak hours according to the seasons.
End of ARENH: a new model under construction
It is one of the major turning points of 2025, last year of application ofARENH, the historic regulatory mechanism for nuclear electricity for alternative suppliers.
Throughout the year, debates crystallized around these successors:
- The UNV (Universal Nuclear Payment) : this new taxation mechanism and redistribution must contain the rise in prices, while securing EDF's income.
- The CAPN (Nuclear Production Allocation Contracts): these long term contracts are designed to guarantee large consumers a secure supply of nuclear electricity at a stable price.
While the main lines of the post-ARENH framework were laid out in 2025, Uncertainty remains on the practical application of UNV and its impact on prices.
Fragile energy governance
While France affirms its ambition to be carbon neutral, 2025 has been punctuated by contradictory signals, fuelled by political tensions, parliamentary instability and budgetary pressure:
- One PEP 3 still waiting : two years late, the Multiannual Energy Programme has still not been published, depriving companies and investors of the visibility they need to get involved.
- Revised public aid : the support systems have been adjusted, between summer break and planing for Ma Prime Rénov', and reorientation of Energy Saving Certificates (EEC).
- Debates around renewable energies : in June 2025, the National Assembly voted for a moratorium on photovoltaic and wind installations, which was finally abandoned at second reading.
- Setbacks in climate-energy policy : the revision of the method of calculating the energy performance diagnosis (DPE) and the adoption of the elimination of Low Emission Zones (EEZs) illustrate the difficulty in reconciling social imperatives and climate objectives.
World: an electric international climate
Energy security under threat
The year 2025 once again demonstrated the precariousness of the geopolitical balance.
While the markets have resisted, caution is still required for the year to come, as energy security remains dependent on areas under tension: the war in Gaza, the 12-day flash clash between Israel and Iran, the difficult transition in Syria, the difficult transition in Syria, the conflict in Ukraine...
Donald Trump and the rise of climate scepticism
Barely invested in January 2025, the American president continued the pro-fossil decisions : withdrawal of the Paris Agreement, suspension of offshore wind projects, end of aid for electric vehicles, massive support for LNG through commercial blackmail, etc. At the UN desk in September, he described climate change as “biggest scam ever carried out against the world.”
Donald Trump's positions have Rekindled the climate sceptic flame around the world, uncomplicating speech in the media and on networks.
COP 30, another missed appointment?
Organized in this tense international context, the COP 30 has failed to accelerate climate action. The result of successive compromises, the final agreement remains far below expectations, unsurprisingly for many experts:
- Financing : the text is limited to calling “efforts to at least triple” by 2035, climate adaptation assistance from developing countries, without a numerical commitment from developed countries.
- Exit from fossil fuels : once again, oil and gas producing countries weighed in the negotiations, with a simple discrete reference to the COP 28 compromise in Dubai.
- Deforestation : if COP 30 confirms the creation of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) fund, the initial ambition is reduced to a simple road map for voluntary countries.
On the sidelines of the agreement, a few advances still deserve to be highlighted:
- The initiative against political disinformation, signed by 19 countries, including France.
- The creation of the Belem Action Mechanism (BAM) to support a just and equitable transition, without worsening social inequalities.
Despite some encouraging signs on adaptation and financing, COP30 once again illustrates the growing gap between the promises made and the geopolitical realities.
2025: the new energy challenges
Iberian blackout: a life-size alert
On April 28, 2025, Spain and Portugal were hit by a massive power outage, unprecedented in Europe. Within a few minutes, the electrical system collapsed. One brutal imbalance between production and consumption has generated cascading surges and the shutdown of infrastructures.
This episode recalls the increasing pressure on electrical networks facing a double transition:
- Accelerated electrification of uses (electric vehicles, heat pumps, smart building, etc.)
- The rapid integration of renewable energies.
The Iberian blackout also reveals the fragility of electrical systems and the new ones. challenges in terms of flexibility, storage, and supervision
IA: the new global energy pressure
In 2025, theArtificial intelligence (AI) has made a strong entry into businesses and homes.
This rapid growth leads to a significant increase in electricity consumption to power and cool the data centers that host data and AI models.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that their electricity consumption should double by 2030, representing 3% of global consumption.
This rise in power of AI and electricity needs, which are often still carbon-based, raises a crucial question: How to reconcile technological progress and ecological sustainability ?
Reasons for hope: towards a new global energy mix
Massive investments in clean energy
Despite the economic crisis, the IEA estimates that global energy investment should reach $3.3 trillion in 2025, including $2.2 trillion spent on clean technology : renewable energies, nuclear, networks, storage, storage, low-emission fuels, batteries, electric vehicles, energy efficiency and the electrification of uses. China accounts for around a third of global investments.
This figure testifies to thecommitment of businesses and industries who, beyond political tensions, are investing to reduce their emissions, strengthen their energy security and improve their competitiveness.
ENR and nuclear: the future winning duo in the global mix?
In 2025, France had 95% carbon-free electricity production, thanks to nuclear power and renewable energies. This trend is affirming itself on a global scale, where low-carbon energies are experiencing a real boom.
According to the IEA's mid-year report, renewable production is on the verge of overtaking that of coal. The total share of photovoltaic and wind energy is expected to increase from 15% in 2024 to 17% in 2025 in 2025 in global electricity production, compared to only 4% ten years ago. The think tank Ember confirms this outlook, with a spectacular growth in solar production in the first half of the year.
Based on this provisional report, renewable capacity could exceed the record increase already observed in 2024 by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
In 2025, nuclear power also gained ground in the world.
A production record has already been announced, with the commissioning of new reactors in China, India and Korea. Global investments could reach $75 billion in 2025.
To conclude...
2025 will leave the image of a paradoxical and disconcerting year. Shaken by tariff reforms, geopolitical tensions and political debates, she recalled how vulnerable the energy transition is to global shocks.
The faults in the energy system have come to light, revealing the fragility of infrastructures and a strong dependence on international hazards.
But behind these turbulences, the year also revealed strong signals, bringing hope. Investments in low-carbon technologies are reaching unprecedented levels. Renewable energies continue to rise.
Businesses and industries are investing. Despite shocks, uncertainties and oppositions, the energy transition is resisting, adapting and continuing to gain ground.
What if you too chose a more sustainable, more resilient, more human future?
Let's accelerate the energy transition of your company or community together with SirEnergies
{{ask-advice=” /ctas "}}
Take the first step towards optimization
In a few clicks, organize an exchange with one of our experts.
Articles related to this topic
weekly newsletter subscribers
4.9
The answers to your questions
What are the electricity offers offered by bellenergie Business?
.png){kind=icon}
The range E @sy is available in four pricing structures to adapt to each risk profile:
- E @sy Fixed: 100% budget visibility without variation.
- E @sy Click: Smoothed price thanks to staggered purchases on the markets.
- E @sy Block + Spot: A mix between a secure base and a portion indexed to daily prices.
- E @sy Sport: A 100% dynamic offer to take advantage of downside opportunities in real time.
Pourquoi le seuil de 78 €/MWh est-il critiqué par les experts ?
Ce seuil est jugé élevé par rapport aux prévisions actuelles du marché. Si le prix de l'électricité reste en dessous de 78 €/MWh, les entreprises ne bénéficieront d'aucune redistribution. Cela signifie que la protection promise par la réforme pourrait être inexistante dans un marché baissier, d'où l'importance de stratégies de sourcing agiles et d'outils de monitoring comme Pilott.
What is the main objective of the Multiannual Energy 3 Programming?
The central objective of PPE 3 is to engage France towards carbon neutrality by 2050 by breaking the country's historical dependence on fossil fuels.
Today, approximately 60% of final energy consumption in France still relies on imported oil and natural gas. PPE 3 aims to radically reverse this trend by setting an ambitious target: to reach 60% of carbon-free energies in final consumption by 2030.
To achieve this, PPE 3 pursues three major sub-objectives:
- Massive decarbonization: Replace fossil fuels with low-carbon electricity or renewable heat in industry, transport and buildings.
- Energy sovereignty: Reduce the national energy bill (around 60 billion euros per year) and get rid of the volatility of the global gas and oil markets.
- Economic competitiveness: Guarantee businesses and households access to stable, abundant and predictable energy at a predictable cost, disconnected from geopolitical crises.
Quelle est la différence entre un prix Forward et un prix Spot ?
Le prix Forward est fixé à l'avance (sécurité budgétaire), tandis que le prix Spot varie heure par heure selon le marché (opportunité mais risque élevé).
Fin de l'ARENH au 31 décembre 2025 : comment sécuriser mon budget énergie pour 2026?
La fin de l'ARENH (Accès Régulé à l'Électricité Nucléaire Historique) marque l'arrêt de la fourniture d'électricité à prix fixe garanti (42 €/MWh).
Dès le 1er janvier 2026, les entreprises sont exposées aux prix de marché, mais deux nouveaux mécanismes de régulation prennent le relais, bien que leur logique soit différente :
- Le Versement Nucléaire Universel (VNU) : Ce n'est pas un tarif d'achat, mais un mécanisme de redistribution a posteriori. Si les prix de marché de l'électricité nucléaire dépassent un certain seuil (environ 78 €/MWh selon les estimations pour 2026), EDF reversera 50 % des revenus excédentaires aux consommateurs. Attention : Si les prix de marché restent modérés (sous les 78 €/MWh), le VNU ne se déclenche pas. Il agit comme une assurance contre les flambées extrêmes, pas comme un tarif bas garanti.
- Les CAPN (Contrats d'Allocation de Production Nucléaire) : Réservés aux industriels électro-intensifs, ces contrats de long terme (10-15 ans) permettent de réserver une part de la production nucléaire en échange d'une participation aux coûts du parc. Ils offrent une visibilité sur le long terme pour 50 à 70 % des volumes consommés.
Conseil stratégique : Ne comptez pas sur le VNU pour réduire votre facture en 2026 si les marchés restent stables. Auditez vos contrats dès maintenant pour intégrer une part de prix fixe ou explorer des "Power Purchase Agreements" (PPA) pour sécuriser vos coûts sur le long terme.
L'IA remplace-t-elle les analystes en énergie ?
Non. L'IA traite la donnée (data processing), mais l'analyste apporte la compréhension du contexte (market sentiment) et la prise de décision stratégique.
What are the customer reviews on bellenergie Business's customer service?
In 2025, the supplier had a NPS (Net Promoter Score) of +16 and a note of 4,17/5.
Satisfaction is based on a “zero solicitation” model and 100% in-house customer service in Toulon, guaranteeing proximity and responsiveness that cannot be found with major historical suppliers.
Pourquoi l'IA ne peut-elle pas prédire le prix de l'énergie avec exactitude ?
Car les marchés dépendent de facteurs exogènes imprévisibles (géopolitique, météo soudaine, politique) que les modèles basés sur l'historique ne peuvent pas anticiper, tout comme on ne prédit pas le Loto.
Qu'est-ce que le dispositif VNU qui remplace l'ARENH en 2026 ?
La Vente de Nucléaire Universelle (VNU) est le nouveau mécanisme de régulation des prix de l'électricité en France. Contrairement à l'ARENH, il ne s'agit plus d'un volume fixe à prix réduit, mais d'une redistribution financière des revenus excédentaires d'EDF aux consommateurs, basée sur les prix de marché et les coûts de production du nucléaire historique.
Quels sont les cas d'usage concrets des différents types d'IA pour un acheteur d'énergie ?
Chaque modèle d'IA répond à un besoin spécifique du cycle d'achat :
- L’IA générative sert d'assistant de recherche pour synthétiser en quelques minutes des rapports de marché massifs (veille stratégique).
- L’IA déterministe est l'outil de la fiabilité : elle est indispensable pour le forecast (prévision de consommation) car ses calculs sont mathématiques et reproductibles.
- L’IA probabiliste est dédiée à la gestion des risques : elle simule des scénarios (ex: météo, stocks) pour quantifier l'incertitude sur les budgets futurs.
L'expertise humaine reste néanmoins indispensable.
What is the Multiannual Energy Programming (PPE)?
La Multiannual Energy Programming (PPE) is the strategic management tool for France's energy policy. Established by the 2015 law on energy transition for green growth (LTECV), it serves as a compass for the State, communities and businesses.
Concretely, the PPE sets the priorities for action of the public authorities for the management of all forms of energy on the national territory. It covers a period of ten years, divided into two periods of five years, and must be revised periodically to adapt to technological and economic developments.
It deals with major topics such as:
- Security of supply.
- Improving energy efficiency and reducing consumption.
- The development of renewable and recovered energies.
- The electrical production strategy (nuclear, thermal, etc.).
- The balanced development of networks and storage.
It is crucial not to confuse it with National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC). While SNBC sets carbon budgets (the ceilings for greenhouse gas emissions by sector), the PPE determines the technical and energy resources to achieve them.
Mon entreprise peut-elle tirer profit des nouvelles Heures Creuses (11h-17h)?
Absolument. La réforme des heures creuses vise à absorber la surproduction solaire en milieu de journée. Les créneaux d'heures creuses se déplacent progressivement vers la plage 11h00 – 17h00, notamment en été. C'est une opportunité majeure pour les sites industriels ou tertiaires capables de flexibilité.
Conseil stratégique :
- Pilotage de la charge : Si vous avez des processus énergivores (fours, broyeurs, recharge de flotte de véhicules électriques, production de froid), déplacez leur fonctionnement sur la pause méridienne. L'électricité y sera moins chère et moins carbonée.
- Autoconsommation : C'est le moment idéal pour coupler cette tarification avec une installation photovoltaïque en toiture ou en ombrière de parking. Vous effacez votre consommation réseau au moment où le tarif serait le plus avantageux, ou vous profitez des prix bas du réseau si votre production ne suffit pas.
Quel sera l'impact réel du VNU sur ma facture d'électricité professionnelle ?
L'impact dépendra des prix de marché. Le mécanisme prévoit une redistribution si les prix dépassent 78 €/MWh. Cependant, si les cours restent bas (actuellement autour de 60 €/MWh), le dispositif ne s'activera pas. La facture sera alors indexée à 100% sur les prix de marché, rendant le choix du fournisseur et du moment d'achat critiques.
Pourquoi le mécanisme de capacité a-t-il été créé ?
Instauré en 2017, ce dispositif répond à un enjeu de sécurité nationale.
L'électricité ne se stockant pas à grande échelle, le réseau doit être capable de répondre instantanément à la demande, même lors des pics de froid hivernaux. Le mécanisme incite financièrement les producteurs à maintenir leurs centrales disponibles et les entreprises à réduire leur consommation (effacement) lors de ces périodes critiques.
The answers to your questions
Fin de l'ARENH au 31 décembre 2025 : comment sécuriser mon budget énergie pour 2026?
La fin de l'ARENH (Accès Régulé à l'Électricité Nucléaire Historique) marque l'arrêt de la fourniture d'électricité à prix fixe garanti (42 €/MWh).
Dès le 1er janvier 2026, les entreprises sont exposées aux prix de marché, mais deux nouveaux mécanismes de régulation prennent le relais, bien que leur logique soit différente :
- Le Versement Nucléaire Universel (VNU) : Ce n'est pas un tarif d'achat, mais un mécanisme de redistribution a posteriori. Si les prix de marché de l'électricité nucléaire dépassent un certain seuil (environ 78 €/MWh selon les estimations pour 2026), EDF reversera 50 % des revenus excédentaires aux consommateurs. Attention : Si les prix de marché restent modérés (sous les 78 €/MWh), le VNU ne se déclenche pas. Il agit comme une assurance contre les flambées extrêmes, pas comme un tarif bas garanti.
- Les CAPN (Contrats d'Allocation de Production Nucléaire) : Réservés aux industriels électro-intensifs, ces contrats de long terme (10-15 ans) permettent de réserver une part de la production nucléaire en échange d'une participation aux coûts du parc. Ils offrent une visibilité sur le long terme pour 50 à 70 % des volumes consommés.
Conseil stratégique : Ne comptez pas sur le VNU pour réduire votre facture en 2026 si les marchés restent stables. Auditez vos contrats dès maintenant pour intégrer une part de prix fixe ou explorer des "Power Purchase Agreements" (PPA) pour sécuriser vos coûts sur le long terme.
Mon entreprise peut-elle tirer profit des nouvelles Heures Creuses (11h-17h)?
Absolument. La réforme des heures creuses vise à absorber la surproduction solaire en milieu de journée. Les créneaux d'heures creuses se déplacent progressivement vers la plage 11h00 – 17h00, notamment en été. C'est une opportunité majeure pour les sites industriels ou tertiaires capables de flexibilité.
Conseil stratégique :
- Pilotage de la charge : Si vous avez des processus énergivores (fours, broyeurs, recharge de flotte de véhicules électriques, production de froid), déplacez leur fonctionnement sur la pause méridienne. L'électricité y sera moins chère et moins carbonée.
- Autoconsommation : C'est le moment idéal pour coupler cette tarification avec une installation photovoltaïque en toiture ou en ombrière de parking. Vous effacez votre consommation réseau au moment où le tarif serait le plus avantageux, ou vous profitez des prix bas du réseau si votre production ne suffit pas.