Summarize with AI
How will electricity prices change in 2023?
Mis à jour le
March 6, 2026
8
Min reading
Electricity prices are at the heart of economic and social news, all over Europe. The various market and geopolitical events or even the political will of certain governments are causing significant turmoil in the world of energy in Europe.
Today, the vast majority of electricity markets Europeans are interconnected. The prices of the different areas (Germany, France, GB...) are interdependent. They influence each other through the construction of markets and the various European regulations.
Recently, to deal with the explosion in prices, Spain and Portugal resorted to a mechanism to block market prices. The European Union has also recently decided to put in place far-reaching measures, according to statements by Ursula von der Leyen.
The electricity markets are currently overheated. In this article, we will attempt to describe a price scenario with a “stable” context, in which we could see the effects of government measures, and a “tight” price scenario that could increase prices.
Scenario 1: A favourable price scenario in a stable context
Structural and cyclical causes for the rise in electricity prices
Initially, the rise in electricity prices started after the first Covid-19 crisis. This is mainly due to several factors:
- The global economic recovery following Covid-19;
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine;
- Rising natural gas prices (driven by the first and second factors).
Economic activity at half-mast during months of lockdown has destabilized energy markets.
By resuming intensive activity (even far from the pre-Covid level), industries around the world have sought massively to provide themselves with energy. Since energy producers did not double over this period, mechanically it does Raise electricity prices. This is why the latter has been rising constantly since 2020.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has also participated in this price race, in particular due to gas.
Before the conflict, Russia accounted for over 40% of Europe's gas imports. However, the current geopolitical context is reducing these imports to almost nothing. It is not possible to compensate for these gas volumes in the short term, the change in supply chain is complex and takes a long time to implement. For these reasons, gas prices have also soared.
Electricity markets were created on a simple principle: The marginal cost of production determines the price of electricity. As we mentioned in our articles, the price of electricity is determined by the cost of the most expensive power plant in order to be able to meet demand.
Logically, the higher the demand during peak consumption, the higher the price will be. It turns out that the most expensive power plant to “match” demand is often a... gas-fired power plant.
We now understand why this situation is exceptional, given this conjuncture of events following one another. The principle of marginal cost has never been contested in more than twenty years of existence; unfortunately, today, this market design challenges us.
The European Union, to the rescue of electricity markets
Today, the duration of the conflict in Ukraine remains undetermined. The economic recovery seems to be on, even if we have not yet reached the levels before the health crisis.
The European Union has decided to set up shock measures in order to protect social peace in its various nations. Galloping inflation, the risk of the closure of many businesses as well as major social conflicts have led the EU to propose the following measures:
- A temporary ceiling concerning the revenues received by so-called “inframarginal” electricity producers (renewable energies, nuclear energy). The selling price that will be received by the producers concerned will be capped at 180 euros/MWh. The difference between the real selling price and €180/MWh will be donated to the States to finance the tariff shield;
- The temporary solidarity contribution : the EU wants to make an exceptional contribution to the profits generated by activities in the gas, oil, coal and refining sectors. States will receive profits in excess of 20% of the average profits over the last three years;
- A significant reduction in gas consumed in Europe. Measures of energy sobriety will be implemented in each Member State.
These are short-term measures aimed at alleviating the consequences of the energy price crisis on the purchasing power of European citizens.
The European Union and the French State also want to put in place longer-term measures, and this requires a total reduction of the Union's dependence on gas from Russia by 2027.
We should also mention the tariff shield set up by the French government, and followed by many states.
Effective measures in case of stabilization of the geopolitical situation
We can now imagine a scenario in which the current geopolitical crisis stabilises in Europe.
If certain conditions are also met, then a downward trend could be observed on short-term markets, especially if new sources of gas supply remain continuous and regular. But also if energy efficiency measures are effective and widespread, which has the consequence of reducing electricity consumption in France by 10%.
The unknown today lies in the availability of EDF's French nuclear power plants. In 2022, we observe one of the lowest rates of availability of nuclear energy in nearly ten years. A large number of them are now shut down due to maintenance operations linked to corrosion problems.
If they recover before next winter, the signal sent to the markets would be positive enough to pull prices down.
In this favourable scenario, the policy measures would have an immediate effect on prices. This could make it possible to re-establish a more socially acceptable market situation for several months; this system could disappear in the event of stabilization of conflicts in Europe.
It should be noted that even if the fighting in Ukraine stopped, there would be residual pressure on prices, time for Europe to adapt to its new modes of production and consumption, as well as to recreate gas supply chains.
Scenario 2: An unfavorable price scenario in the event of increased geopolitical instability in Europe
Factors that can worsen market tension
The armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia remains the most important factor in the reaction of the markets. This war has shaken up the organization of the energy sector of sustainable way, and can still have serious consequences in the event of an escalation of the conflict.
Human and economic losses can be catastrophic; it is the first factor to look at when trying to understand how markets react.
The new supply chains (especially gas) are still fragile today. It is likely that, for a conjunctural or geopolitical factor, one of these sources will be reduced.
This could also lead to higher prices and thus further weaken the European industrial fabric.
The availability of the French nuclear fleet also plays an important role in prices in the CWE zone (Central West Europe). Si ASN Announcing new unavailability in the heart of winter, RTE will have difficulty ensuring electricity balance; the markets will no doubt react.
The advantage of the measures put in place by the EU is that, in this case, the amounts collected by the states should be colossal (more than 150 billion euros).
They should be enough to protect French businesses and households in the short term, but impossible to maintain in the long term. There will be less incentive to invest in new means of production; the entire sector would have to be rethought, as would the liberalization of markets.
The political situation also remains tense between Taiwan and its Chinese neighbor. It is also conceivable that an upsurge in hostilities could destabilize the energy sector even more significantly.
Algeria also provides part of the gas supply to France and Europe; if any event were to alleviate this support, lasting tensions will appear on the electricity markets.
Robust but short-term measures
In the scenario described above, electricity prices are expected to stabilize for several months, thanks to the important measures put in place.
However, the markets would still show prices as high as ever for fossil fuels (gas and coal). They would also be high for nuclear and renewable energies (inframarginal ones); however, the European measure will redirect these funds (beyond €180/MWh) to the final consumer.
In summary, volatility and price increases are expected to follow one another on the markets, even if the effect on the bills of energy-intensive businesses would be reduced thanks to these emergency measures.
The tensions observed on CO2 markets in 2020/2021 are now attenuated. It is also a factor explaining the increases in electricity prices. If this commodity sees its price double in 2023, electricity prices would suffer the immediate consequences.
Source: Carbon Credits
It is particularly difficult to predict what the electricity markets will do in 2023. At all times, The forecast of electricity prices is an exercise that is almost impossible to perform with precision.
The various mathematical models that currently exist (stochastic processes for the most part) are unable to show regular performances over time, mainly because of the diversity and number of factors that influence this price and are self-correlated.
In the short term, the measures put in place by the EU should be enough to reduce electricity bill businesses and individual customers, and thus secure the more structural adaptation of energy markets in Europe. The Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) must also monitor the practices of suppliers and producers in order to avoid market manipulation or various excesses.
Do not hesitate to consult our article: What is the difference between baseload and peakload?
Did you know that?
Your SirEnergies space allows you to visualize market price curves updated daily. There are various products:
- Forward products in electricity (baseload and peakload) and gas over the years, quarters and months periods;
- Total depth since the products were put on the market;
- Product history, current products and forecasts for A+4 and A+5;
- Spot electricity and gas product (PEG and TTF) by the hour, day and month;
- CO2 year and December.
Take the first step towards optimization
In a few clicks, organize an exchange with one of our experts.
weekly newsletter subscribers
4.9
The answers to your questions
Quand faut-il renégocier son contrat d'électricité professionnel pour 2026 ?
.png){kind=icon}
Idéalement entre 6 et 12 mois avant l'échéance, de préférence au printemps ou au début de l'été lorsque la demande est plus faible.
Quel est le nouveau record 2025 d'exportation d'électricité de la France ?
En 2025, la France a atteint un solde exportateur net de 92,3 TWh, battant le précédent record de 2024 (89 TWh).
What is the point of following Spot & Forward prices?
This makes it possible to choose the right time to contract, secure your budgets and anticipate increases.
Which taxes are particularly relevant for farms?
Farms are subject to taxes such as TICFE or TICGN. Sirenergies verifies their application, identifies cases of exemption and accompanies the procedures to reduce the tax burden.
What are the consequences of overpowering?
Exceeding capacity leads to financial penalties and can impact the size of the contract. Adjust the correctly subscribed power makes it possible to avoid these additional costs.
Le prix de l'électricité va-t-il baisser en 2026 ?
Pas nécessairement sur votre facture finale. Si les prix de gros (le prix de l'énergie brute) ont baissé, les coûts d'acheminement (TURPE) et certaines taxes augmentent, compensant souvent la baisse de la part énergie.
Why launch an energy tender?
Un appel d’offres permet de mettre en concurrence plusieurs fournisseurs d’électricité et de gaz afin d’obtenir des conditions contractuelles optimisées. C’est une démarche transparente qui permet de choisir l’offre la plus adaptée aux besoins budgétaires et techniques de l’organisation.
Comment l'eau est-elle transformée en électricité ?
Le processus repose sur l'utilisation de la force de l'eau (énergie cinétique) issue des courants, des chutes d'eau ou des dénivelés. Le fonctionnement suit trois étapes clés :
- Le barrage retient l'eau et l'oriente vers des conduites.
- La pression de l'eau fait tourner une turbine, créant de l'énergie mécanique.
- Une génératrice (alternateur) transforme cette énergie mécanique en électricité, laquelle est ensuite adaptée par un transformateur pour le réseau
Qu'est-ce qui remplace l'ARENH depuis le 1er janvier 2026 ?
Le dispositif ARENH a laissé place au VNU (Versement Nucléaire Universel).
Ce changement structurel expose davantage les entreprises aux prix de gros, rendant la gestion des risques plus complexe qu'auparavant.
Il devient alors indispensable de définir une stratégie d'achat d'électricité avec Sirenergies pour lisser l'impact de la volatilité des marchés sur votre budget.
What are the PP1 and PP2 alert days?
These are signals sent by RTE during periods of tension on the electrical network. The Sirenergies tool informs you in real time to anticipate your uses.
Comment réduire la puissance souscrite de son compteur ?
En analysant votre courbe de charge pour identifier la puissance réelle appelée, puis en demandant un ajustement à votre fournisseur ou via un expert en énergie.
What is energy sourcing?
Sourcing consists in identifying and analysing the offers of several electricity and gas suppliers. This approach makes it possible to obtain contracts adapted to the consumption profile and budgetary constraints of the company.
Qu'est-ce qui remplace l'ARENH en 2026 pour les entreprises ?
L'ARENH est remplacé par le VNU (Versement Nucléaire Universel), un mécanisme de redistribution des revenus excédentaires d'EDF en cas de prix très élevés, et par les CAPN, des contrats long terme pour les gros industriels.
Why change energy suppliers?
Changing suppliers can allow you to benefit from more competitive prices, adapted services or better contractual conditions. Thanks to sourcing, change is happening without interruption of supply.
What taxes are particularly relevant to manufacturers?
The industry is concerned by TICFE, TICGN and other contributions that may represent an important part of invoices. Sirenergies identifies cases of exemption and accompanies the procedures to benefit from them.
What are the energy challenges for manufacturers?
Industrial companies consume large volumes of energy for their production processes. They have to deal with the volatility of prizes, multi-site management and specific taxes. Controlling costs is essential to remain competitive.
How do I get a tax exemption?
Some businesses may obtain a partial or total exemption from the TICFE or the TICGN, depending on their activity and energy intensity. The support of an expert makes it possible to identify the eligibility criteria and to put together the file.
What are the challenges for tertiary companies?
Tertiary companies must manage their energy costs while guaranteeing the comfort of users (offices, shops, services). Consumption is often linked to heating, air conditioning and lighting, which requires precise monitoring to avoid budgetary excesses.
What is the difference between €/MWh and kWh?
The €/MWh is a price unit used in wholesale markets, while kWh is the unit visible on your bills.
What are the energy challenges of the agricultural sector?
Farms must deal with high seasonal needs (greenhouse heating, irrigation, storage) and high volatility of prizes. Controlling these costs is essential to maintain profitability and secure the business.
L'hydroélectricité est-elle une énergie "propre" ?
Oui, elle est considérée comme une énergie renouvelable à faibles émissions de gaz à effet de serre.
De plus, l'eau ne subit aucune transformation chimique durant le cycle de production et réintègre son milieu naturel en aval.
Cependant, la construction de barrages nécessite des mesures pour protéger les écosystèmes (débit minimum, passes à poissons).
Comment mobiliser les collaborateurs autour d'un projet de sobriété énergétique ?
La réussite d'un projet collectif énergie repose sur trois piliers fondamentaux :
- La visibilité : On ne gère bien que ce que l'on mesure. Partager les données de consommation via des outils comme l'application Pilott donne un sens concret aux efforts fournis.
- L'incarnation : Nommer des ambassadeurs énergie internes permet de diffuser les bonnes pratiques par l'exemple et de lever les freins opérationnels propres à chaque métier.
- La gamification : Transformer la contrainte en défi (challenges inter-services, concours de l'équipe la plus sobre) crée une dynamique positive et renforce la cohésion d'équipe autour des enjeux RSE.
Qu'est-ce que le cosinus phi
C'est l'indicateur d'efficacité d'un appareil électrique ; il représente le ratio entre la puissance active (utile) et la puissance apparente (totale).
How do I read an electricity or gas bill?
One invoice consists of several elements: consumption, supplier share, taxes and contributions. The analysis of each line makes it possible to identify possible errors and to check the consistency with the signed contract.
Quelle est la différence concrète entre le transport et la distribution d'électricité ?
Le transport (RTE) correspond aux "autoroutes" de l’électricité. Il s’agit de transporter de très grandes quantités d'énergie sur de longues distances, depuis les centrales de production (nucléaires, barrages, parcs éoliens offshore) vers les régions de consommation.
La distribution (Enedis) s'apparente aux "routes départementales" et aux rues. Elle récupère l'électricité à la sortie du réseau de transport pour la livrer directement chez le client final, en abaissant la tension pour qu'elle soit utilisable par vos appareils.
What are the customer reviews on bellenergie Business's customer service?
In 2025, the supplier had a NPS (Net Promoter Score) of +16 and a note of 4,17/5.
Satisfaction is based on a “zero solicitation” model and 100% in-house customer service in Toulon, guaranteeing proximity and responsiveness that cannot be found with major historical suppliers.
Who can benefit from optimizing invoices and taxes?
All businesses, from SMEs to large organizations, can benefit from this service. Les local authorities also find it a lever to better control their budgets.
What are the advantages of sourcing?
Sourcing offers better visibility on the market and promotes the selection of competitive contracts. It helps to reduce the risks associated with price volatility and to optimize the energy budget.
How to properly define your subscribed power?
The subscribed power must be calculated according to the consumption profile and uses (heating, industrial processes, tertiary equipment). One fine analysis makes it possible to ensure the adequacy between real need and contract.
What are the main taxes applicable?
Among the taxes include TICFE, TICGN, CTA, CJA and TURPE. They represent a significant part of the bill and vary according to consumption profiles. Understanding them well is essential to optimize costs.
Is Bellenergie Business electricity really green?
Yes. The supplier guarantees an offer 100% renewable via the official Guarantees of Origin (GO) mechanism.
For the most demanding companies, the offer GREENVOLT+ ensures very low carbon intensity electricity, sourced exclusively from independent French producers (hydraulic, wind, solar).
What are the concrete benefits for tertiary companies?
Les profits include a direct reduction in bills, strengthened budgetary forecasting and better control of consumption. Businesses gain visibility and efficiency thanks to adapted tools.
Pourquoi l'humain est-il le premier levier de la performance énergétique ?
Même le bâtiment le plus moderne et le mieux isolé perd son efficacité si ses usages sont inadaptés. La technologie et les normes ne suffisent pas : la transition énergétique est avant tout une transformation humaine.
Derrière chaque kilowattheure consommé se cache une habitude.
Un collaborateur sensibilisé comprend qu'ouvrir une fenêtre alors que le chauffage est allumé ou laisser un ordinateur en veille consomme de l'énergie inutilement. En replaçant l'humain au centre de la stratégie de gestion de l'énergie, l'entreprise s'assure que ses équipements performants sont utilisés de manière optimale, garantissant ainsi une rentabilité durable et un impact environnemental réduit.
Pourquoi la France a-t-elle exporté un volume record d'électricité en 2025 ?
Ce record de 92,3 TWh s'explique par la conjonction de trois facteurs :
- Le redressement du parc nucléaire : Après les problèmes de corrosion sous contrainte de 2022, la production nucléaire a retrouvé une forte disponibilité (373 TWh).
- L'essor des renouvelables : Une capacité installée en hausse (solaire et éolien) et une production hydraulique solide.
- Une consommation intérieure atone : La demande française reste inférieure de 6 % à la moyenne historique, créant un surplus massif disponible pour nos voisins.
Quel est l'impact de ces exportations sur le prix de l'électricité pour les entreprises ?
L'abondance de production française tire les prix du marché de gros vers le bas.
En vertu du mécanisme de l'Ordre de Mérite (Merit Order), les centrales les moins coûteuses (nucléaire, renouvelables) couvrent la demande plus souvent, évinçant les centrales à gaz ou charbon plus onéreuses.
Cela multiplie les épisodes de prix bas, voire négatifs, sur le marché spot.
Pourquoi mon contrat est-il en kVA et ma consommation en kWh ?
Le kVA mesure la capacité maximale que votre compteur peut supporter à un instant T, tandis que le kWh mesure la quantité d'énergie consommée sur une durée.
Comment réduire ma facture si les prix du marché sont volatils ?
En 2026, les principaux leviers sont : la renégociation de votre contrat de fourniture au bon moment, l'optimisation de votre tarif d'acheminement (TURPE), la vérification de votre éligibilité aux taux réduits de taxes (Accise), et la réduction de votre consommation (efficacité énergétique, autoconsommation).
How to optimize the taxes and contributions of a community?
Communities are subject to taxes such as TICFE or TICGN. Sirenergies analyzes invoices, identifies exemption possibilities and fixes possible errors to reduce the tax burden.
Quelles sont les nouvelles obligations pour le Décret Tertiaire et l'Audit Énergétique ?
Le calendrier 2026 impose deux échéances majeures :
- la déclaration des consommations 2025 sur la plateforme OPERAT avant le 30 septembre
- la réalisation d'un audit énergétique avant le 11 octobre pour toutes les entreprises consommant plus de 2,75 GWh/an.
Pour simplifier ces démarches, vous pouvez centraliser vos données de consommation avec la plateforme Pilott de Sirenergies, garantissant ainsi la conformité de vos rapports réglementaires.
What are the electricity offers offered by bellenergie Business?
The range E @sy is available in four pricing structures to adapt to each risk profile:
- E @sy Fixed: 100% budget visibility without variation.
- E @sy Click: Smoothed price thanks to staggered purchases on the markets.
- E @sy Block + Spot: A mix between a secure base and a portion indexed to daily prices.
- E @sy Sport: A 100% dynamic offer to take advantage of downside opportunities in real time.
Comment financer les travaux communaux sans augmenter la taxe foncière ?
Plusieurs leviers existent pour préserver la fiscalité locale :
- Les CEE (Certificats d’Économie d’Énergie) : Un financement privé majeur pour l'efficacité énergétique.
- L'optimisation de l'achat d'énergie : Choisir des contrats adaptés (prix fixes, indexés ou groupés) pour dégager des marges de manœuvre dès la première année.
- Les aides publiques : Mobiliser le Fonds Vert, le FEDER ou le Fonds Chaleur.
Quel est l'impact réel de la rénovation de l'éclairage public ?
C'est le levier le plus rapide pour obtenir des résultats visibles. L'éclairage représente environ 40 % de la consommation d'électricité d'une commune.
Passer au LED avec pilotage intelligent permet de réduire la facture de 50 à 80 %, avec un retour sur investissement (ROI) rapide, souvent estimé à 2 ou 3 ans.
How to optimize taxes and contributions?
Tertiary companies are concerned by taxes such as TICFE or TICGN. Sirenergies checks the accuracy of invoices, identifies possible exemptions, and helps correct errors to sustainably reduce costs.
Pourquoi le kVA est-il crucial pour les entreprises ?
Parce que la puissance souscrite en kVA détermine le prix de l'abonnement et que tout dépassement peut entraîner des surcoûts importants.
The answers to your questions
No items found.