Professionals: how to anticipate the end of ARENH?

The countdown is on.

On December 31, 2025, ARENH will bow out, fifteen years after its creation. From the 1^Er January 2026, the rules of the game are changing. 100% of electricity will have to be purchased at market prices, with the associated risks of volatility.

For businesses, communities and professionals, the challenge is clear: anticipate, act and not suffer. This shift is being prepared now!

Why the end of ARENH? What are the consequences on electricity prices? What is it being replaced by? Discover our comprehensive guide to making the right decisions, securing your costs and avoiding unpleasant surprises in 2026.

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Why is ARENH ending in 2025?

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THE ARENH (Regulated Access to Historic Nuclear Electricity) was set up in 2011 by the NOME law, to support the opening up of the electricity market to competition. Its lifespan, set at fifteen years, was confirmed as early as 2015 by the Energy Transition Law for Green Growth (LTECV).

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The founding principles of ARENH: equity and accessibility

Since its creation, ARENH has always been guided by two principles:

• Ensuring fair competition between EDF and alternative suppliers, by authorizing the latter to buy a portion of nuclear electricity at a regulated rate.
• Control electricity rates, thanks to the purchase of nuclear electricity at a fixed price of €42 per MWh, lower than wholesale market prices.

Capped at 100 TWh, the ARENH volume covered nearly a third of national consumption each year.

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ARENH: a useful but controversial device

Despite its flaws and weaknesses, ARENH has helped to Containing the rise electricity prices for consumers.

He also gave budget visibility to businesses and professionals.

However, this device has never been unanimously accepted..

Its detractors - including EDF, electricity producers and the European Union - have continued to highlight its limitations:

• Degraded profitability for EDF: The sale of part of its nuclear electricity at a fixed price, lower than market prices and production costs, reduces EDF's margins and limits its investment capacity.
• Biased competition : with their higher production costs, small electricity producers are struggling to compete with the regulated tariff for nuclear electricity, which is hampering the development of renewable energies.
• A disguised grant? : ARENH creates a competitive imbalance in favor of alternative suppliers who benefit from cheaper electricity, without bearing the risks and production costs.

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End of ARENH: what are the consequences for electricity prices in 2026?

From the 1^Er January 2026, businesses will have to buy 100% of their electricity at market prices.

Today, one question challenges all businesses: How will electricity rates change? 

Two major visions clash.

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Price increase or stability after ARENH?

A real risk of rising prices

In a February 2025 press release, The UFC-Que choosing fears a “massive rise” electricity tariffs from 2026.

She estimates it on average at + 19%, or 250 euros extra per year for an average household.

If these forecasts based on 2025 market conditions are to be taken with caution, mathematical analysis would confirm an inevitable rise in prices.

For some experts, the calculation is simple: the ARENH was €42/MWh.
However, the lowest market forecasts for 2026 indicate prices around €60/MWh.

Mechanically, the post-ARENH increase would therefore represent 8 to 10 €/MWh (based on an ARENH fee of 50%).

A price stability scenario

Other voices want to be more optimistic. La fall in market prices, already observed for 2026, should compensate for the end of ARENH.

The government shares this reading, highlighting the various tools created to stabilize post-ARENH prices.

According to the Ministry of Finance, “The payment to the consumer provided for by the finance law for 2025 leads to a TRV level of 1^Er January 2026 almost identical to the current level”.

The supply that is smoothed over two years should also cushion market fluctuations.

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 Which professionals will be the most impacted by the end of ARENH?

The end of ARENH does not weigh on all businesses in the same way.

• Electro-intensive industries (iron and steel, metallurgy, chemistry) are on the front line.
  With 30% of their production costs linked to electricity, an increase of 8 to 10€ per MWh could be enough to threaten their international competitiveness.
• Large companies, ETI and large communities, excluded from regulated tariffs, could also be hit hard by price volatility. Adopting a proactive purchasing strategy is no longer an option, but a necessity, otherwise there will be sudden increases.
• Small communities, SMEs, small businesses, artisans and retailers can already benefit from a safety net, with regulated sales rates (TRV) made more accessible since the 1^Er February 2025 and the removal of the power criterion. Two conditions must be met: less than ten employees and a turnover (or revenue) of less than 2 million euros.
  
  

What new mechanisms for electricity after ARENH?

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Two new regulatory mechanisms must replace the ARENH starting from the 1^Er January 2026.

But only three months before their entry into force, their outlines remain vague, fuelling debates and concerns, in an unstable and unreassuring political context.

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Universal Nuclear Payment: a redistribution mechanism

Universal Nuclear Payment (UNV) will apply to all consumers in 2026. UNV is based on a mechanism of taxation — redistribution.

It must limit the surge in prices for consumers, while ensuring that EDF has sufficient income to develop the nuclear fleet.

How will taxation — redistribution work?

Concretely, EDF will sell all of its nuclear production at market prices.

If this price exceeds production costs (estimated at €60.3/MWh for 2026-2028 by the Commission de Régulation de l'Énergie - CRE), EDF will have to pay back part of its excess income to the state.

Two thresholds are envisaged:

• Beyond a market price of 78 to 80 €/MWh, EDF would donate 50% of its excess income.
• Above €100 to €110/MWh, EDF would pay 90% of the difference.

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The amount will then be redistributed to consumers, in the form of automatic discounts, calculated in euros per MWh. A specific “VNU” line will appear on the electricity bill.

Shadow areas that worry...

The administrative machine is now in operation.

As evidenced by a First decree published in September 2025 on methods for calculating nuclear production costs.

But, a few weeks before the changeover, the vagueness that still reigns over UNV is fuelling concerns:

• A mechanism that is neither contractual nor guaranteed: Paid a posteriori, the reduction Will vary based on market prices and production volumes. The result: reduced budgetary visibility for businesses and households.
• Redistribution arrangements pending a decree and subject to interpretation: for example, the frequency of payment of UNV or the methods of calculation is still unknown.
• Unfinalized arbitrations, in particular the redistribution thresholds applied to EDF.

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CAPNs: long-term contracts for major manufacturers

Nuclear Production Allocation Contracts (CAPN) concern a minority of customers, whose electricity consumption exceeds 7 GWh per year.

Signed with EDF, the CAPN is a long-term contract (10 to 15 years) that guarantees large consumers:

• A secure supply in carbon-free electricity of nuclear origin, with a volume limited to 10 TWh per year.
• A more stable price, based on real production costs, not on volatile markets.

In return, industrial consumers agree to sharing some of the costs and risks, via the payment of a deposit at the start of the contract and a variable portion, indexed to operating and fuel costs.

Despite these attractive promises, the CAPN was slow to take off, due to a lack of visibility and because of the sharing of risks.

But since the summer of 2025, signatures have been accelerating, a sign that manufacturers are looking to secure their costs in the long term.

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What strategies to anticipate the end of ARENH right now?

Volatile prices, unpredictable bills, uncertain regulatory mechanisms: the disappearance of ARENH signals the end of a protective model for businesses.

A profound transformation is in the works. The key to not suffering it?

Anticipate now by adopting a proactive procurement and procurement strategy.

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Adopt a proactive purchasing strategy

‍Renegotiate your electricity contracts now

Buy the right product at the right time is the basis of an effective energy procurement strategy.

With Lowest market prices for 2026 and 2027, it may be time to renegotiate your electricity contracts.

According to Emmanuel Sire's analysis, buying at this price is “buy below the price of ARENH revalued taking into account inflation since 2012”.

However, vigilance is required. A return to the market is always possible, in view of global geopolitical instability.

Favour long-term or fixed-price contracts

What if you secured your prices over the long term to maintain your budgetary visibility and protect yourself from market fluctuations?

The end of ARENH is a certainty. Your energy strategy should not be a source of uncertainty. It is no longer time for waiting, but for action. Our experts are ready to audit your situation and work with you to build a clear road map for 2026.

[Schedule a 30-minute strategic interview]

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The long-term contracts of 3 to 5 years are multiplying today. It is an opportunity worth seizing. Their less volatile prices more reflect the market fundamentals only external and conjunctural events.

Mutualize your purchases through a group purchase of energy

Group energy purchases allow businesses, professionals and communities to pool their volumes, and therefore to benefit from better pricing and contractual conditions.

This winning strategy simplifies the procedures by delegating the negotiation and analysis of offers to an intermediary. However, it makes it impossible to design a personalized offer.

Diversifying your supply sources

Choosing solar self-consumption

Producing and consuming part of your electricity reduces market dependence. Thanks to photovoltaic installations, self-consumption is now available to all businesses and professionals.

Already guaranteed today, the return on investment could accelerate with the rise in electricity prices on the markets.

Opt for a PPA

Another sustainable and safe option to study: power purchase agreements (PPAs). These green electricity supply contracts are concluded directly with renewable energy producers.

In the long term, PPAs offer numerous advantages:

• One stability prices over the long term, from 10 to 30 years.
• One securing supplies.
• One rollback Of vulnerability at the wholesale market.
• One carbon-free electricity, which can be used in your CSR and energy transition policy.

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Focus on energy efficiency to reduce your consumption

The cheapest electricity is the one you don't use. This oft-quoted formula recalls a simple truth: the best way to withstand price instability is to reduce consumption.

The adoption of eco-gestures by your employees is a first step. But this evidence requires rethink all energy consumption globally of your business, via:

• Targeted investments in energy efficiency (thermal insulation of buildings, choice of more efficient equipment, etc.)
• An integration of the imperative of ecological performance into production processes.
• One structuring your energy management 

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Get support from an energy expert

Technical, complex and fast-paced, are you worried about the environment in the electricity sector? Don't stay alone.

An expert helps you negotiate your contracts, analyze the markets, buy your electricity properly or manage your energy strategy effectively.

At the end of the day, a Time saver, of optimized purchases, Of secure supplies, of risks avoided And a reduced electricity bill.

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At Sirenergies, it's our job.

As an energy consulting and sourcing firm, we support companies, professionals and communities every day in their energy decisions.

Clarity, expertise, transparency are our key words to help you better control a constantly changing electricity market.

To find out more, click here.

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To conclude...

The disappearance of ARENH marks a profound change for businesses, communities and professionals. Regulated rates give way to a market that is 100% exposed to price volatility. In addition, there are regulatory uncertainties, which are a source of many questions. But this upheaval is not inevitable. It offers the opportunity to rethink your energy strategy. Between renegotiation of contracts, diversification of supplies, group purchases or self-consumption, there are numerous levers to secure your costs and regain visibility. On one condition: take action today.

With Sirenergies, anticipate and structure your energy strategy today to better control tomorrow.

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