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Blackout - Is there a risk of a generalized blackout?
Mis à jour le
March 6, 2026
7
Min reading
Spain and Portugal experienced a blackout, a giant outage on Monday, April 28, 2025. It brought the economy to a standstill. The exceptional blackout occurred on the Iberian Peninsula precisely because it is a peninsula. Blackouts occur very regularly in Corsica, for example, or even, like all of Italy, except Sardinia, was without electricity on September 28, 2003. There are fewer high-voltage lines that supply a territory when it is on a peninsula. So the network saturates and jumps in case of an unexpected problem.
One of the main objectives of market opening is to avoid Electric black-outs. We sometimes tend to forget it, but it is part of the first European directive on the subject.
Beyond offering access to networks without discrimination, Europe wants above all to secure its supply. Before thinking about price changes, safety comes first.
What is the situation today in France? As a Sirenergies subscriber, you are aware that electricity cannot be stored, at least on a large scale.
The network operator must constantly ensure the balance between production and consumption at all times. The balance of the system is fragile, because forecasting consumption is a complex exercise.
There are numerous examples throughout history where the means used have not been enough. Renewable energies, being Intermittent by nature, complicate the preservation of this balance.
Did you know that?
The energy consulting and sourcing firm, SirEnergies supports companies determined to optimize their electricity and gas consumption and to succeed in their energy transition.
The origin and causes of generalized cuts
The balance of the electrical system
The balance of the electrical system is fragile, as we mentioned in the introduction.
Since the network operator cannot rely on stocks of electricity (such as gas), it must maintain an equivalence between production and consumption. It is the job of Dispatchers of RTE (Electricity Transport Network) who ensure this mission in real time.
The electrical network must therefore meet all the electricity demand at all times. In fact, the alternators rotate at a frequency of 50 hertz.
If demand exceeds supply, then this frequency will fall; conversely, if supply exceeds demand, then frequency increases. It is therefore this balance that RTE monitors, maintaining the frequency at 50 Hz.
Source: RTE
The different causes of electrical blackouts
RTE therefore forecasts electricity demand in advance and asks producers to adjust their productions accordingly. However, there are several events that can cause malfunctions.
Cascading overloads
When a power line is no longer available, the electricity supposed Transit by this line will take another path. This may create an overload on another line. Each line has a maximum transport capacity.
If the current exceeds this limit, overheating occurs and the line automatically disconnects from the network. This reaction can be followed by causing numerous lines to be cut due to electrical overload.
The Joule effect and line expansion
Prolonged overload can cause power lines to expand too much and cause them to deform.
We have seen in history widespread blackouts caused by an overheated line which, under theJoule effect, expands and touches a nearby tree. Upon contact with it, the line is cut off from the network and the chain reaction begins.
One of the most famous examples took place in Germany on November 4, 2006. Turning off two lines to let a ship pass has triggered a generalized blackout in Europe.
The local voltage drop
When a nuclear power plant, for example, is no longer available, the voltage drops locally.
However, when the voltage drops, it reduces the transport capacity of the lines. This creates bottlenecks and therefore overloads. These phenomena can happen very quickly.
Europe: an interconnected copper plate
In Europe, we have what is called a interconnected network. That is, each country is connected to its neighbors by power lines. The frequency is therefore managed at European level.
If a defect occurs in a line near the border, it is likely that some of the flows will go to border countries. A large-scale incident can therefore theoretically plunge a large part of Europe into the dark.
Obviously, this situation is only theoretical, as there are a number of ways to mitigate these risks.
Did you know that?
Our experts imagine for each of customized solutions, concrete and effective for manage your strategy and control your budget energy over time.
The means available to the network operator to prevent these black-outs
Reserves (system services) and the adjustment mechanism
In France, RTE has three types of reserves — primary, secondary, tertiary — to manage imbalances between production and consumption.
- RP: Primary reserves.
- RS: Secondary reserves.
- RT: Tertiary reserves.
Each of these reserves has a power in MW and is triggered if the network frequency falls.
Primary (RP) and secondary (RS) reserves (called “frequency system services”) are triggered automatically to contain the drop in frequency. The first starts in under 30 seconds, while the second starts in under 15 minutes.
The idea is to keep the frequency from collapsing. These flexible production plants are activated by RTE, as upstream contracts have already been signed with various producers.
RTE also has another available power reserve: this is the adjustment mechanism. Some players make their production capacities available in order to balance the network. They are paid for this service.
It's the TURP who comes to bear these costs and therefore, in the end, all French consumers.
Other resources available to the network operator
Globally, there is what is called a” network defense strategy ”. That is to say, a set of means to avoid the risks of blackouts.
For example, the N-K rule: regardless of the fortuitous event that occurs, the network must be able to function with the stopping of several power lines. It is for this reason that the lines are doubled. This is why the French network is one of the densest in Europe.
Load shedding and interruptibility
Some major consumers agree to cut their electricity consumption at the request of RTE. They are also paid for this service.
In the event of an overvoltage on the network, the manager may choose to cut off these industrial sites from their electricity. This gives him additional leeway in order to avoid a blackout. During a cold spell, the network can regain balance by cutting off power to major consumers.
In particular, this system was triggered in January 2019 and 2020 by RTE in France.
To find out more, do not hesitate to read our article: Electricity — What are the load shedding scenarios?
What is the future in blackout prevention? Between energy transition and cybersecurity
Renewable energies are likely to cause significant congestion.
Today, we know that at the time of the energy transition, renewable energies will continue to grow.
This fundamental trend in the development of renewable energies will change the structure of the electrical system by accelerating the mutation of a current highly centralized system into a largely decentralized system.
By 2030, 40 to 45% of installed capacity in Europe should be connected to the BT/HTA network, compared to around 25% today, according to ENTSO-E projections.
Technically, this should cause an increase in congestion (overload) on certain lines and cause a backflow of power to the electricity transmission networks.
It is therefore important to monitor this change in production; RTE must regularly deal with the absence of MW of electrical power from renewables.
Storage systems
RTE recently launched its project RINGO, a series of batteries aimed at providing services to the electrical network.
As RTE says:” The objective: adapt storage/destocking times according to the electricity load on the network. ” This can be a short-term solution to integrating renewable energies into the network and avoid cuts.
Cybersecurity at the heart of the prevention of widespread shutdowns
At present, several European countries have experienced deadly terrorist attacks. Intelligence services are also raising the possibility of a massive attack by hackers aimed at cutting a country's power lines.
This is a risk to be assessed, as this type of incident can seriously damage the economy, but also the safety of citizens. At the time of all numerical And Smart Grids, it is important to maintain the integrity of these systems.
We can imagine a coordinated attack on an intelligent network, making it possible to seize a lot of data and do considerable damage.
French network managers are unanimous in recalling the robustness of the French network while stressing that zero risk does not exist. But France is prepared. We have 29 possible incident scenarios and the procedure in case of crisis. Electricity, in fact, is a balancing act. It is necessary to succeed in balancing production with consumption. When consumption is too great, load shedding is carried out, but it is also necessary to avoid producing too much in relation to current consumption.
To learn more about network balancing, feel free to read our article” Who is in charge of balance? ”
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The answers to your questions
What are the electricity offers offered by bellenergie Business?
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The range E @sy is available in four pricing structures to adapt to each risk profile:
- E @sy Fixed: 100% budget visibility without variation.
- E @sy Click: Smoothed price thanks to staggered purchases on the markets.
- E @sy Block + Spot: A mix between a secure base and a portion indexed to daily prices.
- E @sy Sport: A 100% dynamic offer to take advantage of downside opportunities in real time.
Quel sera l'impact réel du VNU sur ma facture d'électricité professionnelle ?
L'impact dépendra des prix de marché. Le mécanisme prévoit une redistribution si les prix dépassent 78 €/MWh. Cependant, si les cours restent bas (actuellement autour de 60 €/MWh), le dispositif ne s'activera pas. La facture sera alors indexée à 100% sur les prix de marché, rendant le choix du fournisseur et du moment d'achat critiques.
L'hydroélectricité est-elle une énergie "propre" ?
Oui, elle est considérée comme une énergie renouvelable à faibles émissions de gaz à effet de serre.
De plus, l'eau ne subit aucune transformation chimique durant le cycle de production et réintègre son milieu naturel en aval.
Cependant, la construction de barrages nécessite des mesures pour protéger les écosystèmes (débit minimum, passes à poissons).
Qu'est-ce que le dispositif VNU qui remplace l'ARENH en 2026 ?
La Vente de Nucléaire Universelle (VNU) est le nouveau mécanisme de régulation des prix de l'électricité en France. Contrairement à l'ARENH, il ne s'agit plus d'un volume fixe à prix réduit, mais d'une redistribution financière des revenus excédentaires d'EDF aux consommateurs, basée sur les prix de marché et les coûts de production du nucléaire historique.
Fin de l'ARENH au 31 décembre 2025 : comment sécuriser mon budget énergie pour 2026?
La fin de l'ARENH (Accès Régulé à l'Électricité Nucléaire Historique) marque l'arrêt de la fourniture d'électricité à prix fixe garanti (42 €/MWh).
Dès le 1er janvier 2026, les entreprises sont exposées aux prix de marché, mais deux nouveaux mécanismes de régulation prennent le relais, bien que leur logique soit différente :
- Le Versement Nucléaire Universel (VNU) : Ce n'est pas un tarif d'achat, mais un mécanisme de redistribution a posteriori. Si les prix de marché de l'électricité nucléaire dépassent un certain seuil (environ 78 €/MWh selon les estimations pour 2026), EDF reversera 50 % des revenus excédentaires aux consommateurs. Attention : Si les prix de marché restent modérés (sous les 78 €/MWh), le VNU ne se déclenche pas. Il agit comme une assurance contre les flambées extrêmes, pas comme un tarif bas garanti.
- Les CAPN (Contrats d'Allocation de Production Nucléaire) : Réservés aux industriels électro-intensifs, ces contrats de long terme (10-15 ans) permettent de réserver une part de la production nucléaire en échange d'une participation aux coûts du parc. Ils offrent une visibilité sur le long terme pour 50 à 70 % des volumes consommés.
Conseil stratégique : Ne comptez pas sur le VNU pour réduire votre facture en 2026 si les marchés restent stables. Auditez vos contrats dès maintenant pour intégrer une part de prix fixe ou explorer des "Power Purchase Agreements" (PPA) pour sécuriser vos coûts sur le long terme.
How do I get a tax exemption?
Some businesses may obtain a partial or total exemption from the TICFE or the TICGN, depending on their activity and energy intensity. The support of an expert makes it possible to identify the eligibility criteria and to put together the file.
What are the challenges for tertiary companies?
Tertiary companies must manage their energy costs while guaranteeing the comfort of users (offices, shops, services). Consumption is often linked to heating, air conditioning and lighting, which requires precise monitoring to avoid budgetary excesses.
Pourquoi le seuil de 78 €/MWh est-il critiqué par les experts ?
Ce seuil est jugé élevé par rapport aux prévisions actuelles du marché. Si le prix de l'électricité reste en dessous de 78 €/MWh, les entreprises ne bénéficieront d'aucune redistribution. Cela signifie que la protection promise par la réforme pourrait être inexistante dans un marché baissier, d'où l'importance de stratégies de sourcing agiles et d'outils de monitoring comme Pilott.
Quel est le nouveau record 2025 d'exportation d'électricité de la France ?
En 2025, la France a atteint un solde exportateur net de 92,3 TWh, battant le précédent record de 2024 (89 TWh).
What is energy sourcing?
Sourcing consists in identifying and analysing the offers of several electricity and gas suppliers. This approach makes it possible to obtain contracts adapted to the consumption profile and budgetary constraints of the company.
Why launch an energy tender?
Un appel d’offres permet de mettre en concurrence plusieurs fournisseurs d’électricité et de gaz afin d’obtenir des conditions contractuelles optimisées. C’est une démarche transparente qui permet de choisir l’offre la plus adaptée aux besoins budgétaires et techniques de l’organisation.
What are the main taxes applicable?
Among the taxes include TICFE, TICGN, CTA, CJA and TURPE. They represent a significant part of the bill and vary according to consumption profiles. Understanding them well is essential to optimize costs.
Comment l'eau est-elle transformée en électricité ?
Le processus repose sur l'utilisation de la force de l'eau (énergie cinétique) issue des courants, des chutes d'eau ou des dénivelés. Le fonctionnement suit trois étapes clés :
- Le barrage retient l'eau et l'oriente vers des conduites.
- La pression de l'eau fait tourner une turbine, créant de l'énergie mécanique.
- Une génératrice (alternateur) transforme cette énergie mécanique en électricité, laquelle est ensuite adaptée par un transformateur pour le réseau
What is the Multiannual Energy Programming (PPE)?
La Multiannual Energy Programming (PPE) is the strategic management tool for France's energy policy. Established by the 2015 law on energy transition for green growth (LTECV), it serves as a compass for the State, communities and businesses.
Concretely, the PPE sets the priorities for action of the public authorities for the management of all forms of energy on the national territory. It covers a period of ten years, divided into two periods of five years, and must be revised periodically to adapt to technological and economic developments.
It deals with major topics such as:
- Security of supply.
- Improving energy efficiency and reducing consumption.
- The development of renewable and recovered energies.
- The electrical production strategy (nuclear, thermal, etc.).
- The balanced development of networks and storage.
It is crucial not to confuse it with National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC). While SNBC sets carbon budgets (the ceilings for greenhouse gas emissions by sector), the PPE determines the technical and energy resources to achieve them.
Pourquoi la France a-t-elle exporté un volume record d'électricité en 2025 ?
Ce record de 92,3 TWh s'explique par la conjonction de trois facteurs :
- Le redressement du parc nucléaire : Après les problèmes de corrosion sous contrainte de 2022, la production nucléaire a retrouvé une forte disponibilité (373 TWh).
- L'essor des renouvelables : Une capacité installée en hausse (solaire et éolien) et une production hydraulique solide.
- Une consommation intérieure atone : La demande française reste inférieure de 6 % à la moyenne historique, créant un surplus massif disponible pour nos voisins.
Is Bellenergie Business electricity really green?
Yes. The supplier guarantees an offer 100% renewable via the official Guarantees of Origin (GO) mechanism.
For the most demanding companies, the offer GREENVOLT+ ensures very low carbon intensity electricity, sourced exclusively from independent French producers (hydraulic, wind, solar).
Quel est l'impact réel de la rénovation de l'éclairage public ?
C'est le levier le plus rapide pour obtenir des résultats visibles. L'éclairage représente environ 40 % de la consommation d'électricité d'une commune.
Passer au LED avec pilotage intelligent permet de réduire la facture de 50 à 80 %, avec un retour sur investissement (ROI) rapide, souvent estimé à 2 ou 3 ans.
What are the consequences of overpowering?
Exceeding capacity leads to financial penalties and can impact the size of the contract. Adjust the correctly subscribed power makes it possible to avoid these additional costs.
What taxes are particularly relevant to manufacturers?
The industry is concerned by TICFE, TICGN and other contributions that may represent an important part of invoices. Sirenergies identifies cases of exemption and accompanies the procedures to benefit from them.
Pourquoi mon contrat est-il en kVA et ma consommation en kWh ?
Le kVA mesure la capacité maximale que votre compteur peut supporter à un instant T, tandis que le kWh mesure la quantité d'énergie consommée sur une durée.
Pourquoi l'IA ne peut-elle pas prédire le prix de l'énergie avec exactitude ?
Car les marchés dépendent de facteurs exogènes imprévisibles (géopolitique, météo soudaine, politique) que les modèles basés sur l'historique ne peuvent pas anticiper, tout comme on ne prédit pas le Loto.
What are the customer reviews on bellenergie Business's customer service?
In 2025, the supplier had a NPS (Net Promoter Score) of +16 and a note of 4,17/5.
Satisfaction is based on a “zero solicitation” model and 100% in-house customer service in Toulon, guaranteeing proximity and responsiveness that cannot be found with major historical suppliers.
What is the main objective of the Multiannual Energy 3 Programming?
The central objective of PPE 3 is to engage France towards carbon neutrality by 2050 by breaking the country's historical dependence on fossil fuels.
Today, approximately 60% of final energy consumption in France still relies on imported oil and natural gas. PPE 3 aims to radically reverse this trend by setting an ambitious target: to reach 60% of carbon-free energies in final consumption by 2030.
To achieve this, PPE 3 pursues three major sub-objectives:
- Massive decarbonization: Replace fossil fuels with low-carbon electricity or renewable heat in industry, transport and buildings.
- Energy sovereignty: Reduce the national energy bill (around 60 billion euros per year) and get rid of the volatility of the global gas and oil markets.
- Economic competitiveness: Guarantee businesses and households access to stable, abundant and predictable energy at a predictable cost, disconnected from geopolitical crises.
Qu'est-ce qui remplace l'ARENH depuis le 1er janvier 2026 ?
Le dispositif ARENH a laissé place au VNU (Versement Nucléaire Universel).
Ce changement structurel expose davantage les entreprises aux prix de gros, rendant la gestion des risques plus complexe qu'auparavant.
Il devient alors indispensable de définir une stratégie d'achat d'électricité avec Sirenergies pour lisser l'impact de la volatilité des marchés sur votre budget.
What is the point of following Spot & Forward prices?
This makes it possible to choose the right time to contract, secure your budgets and anticipate increases.
What is the difference between €/MWh and kWh?
The €/MWh is a price unit used in wholesale markets, while kWh is the unit visible on your bills.
Quel est l'impact de ces exportations sur le prix de l'électricité pour les entreprises ?
L'abondance de production française tire les prix du marché de gros vers le bas.
En vertu du mécanisme de l'Ordre de Mérite (Merit Order), les centrales les moins coûteuses (nucléaire, renouvelables) couvrent la demande plus souvent, évinçant les centrales à gaz ou charbon plus onéreuses.
Cela multiplie les épisodes de prix bas, voire négatifs, sur le marché spot.
How do I read an electricity or gas bill?
One invoice consists of several elements: consumption, supplier share, taxes and contributions. The analysis of each line makes it possible to identify possible errors and to check the consistency with the signed contract.
What are the PP1 and PP2 alert days?
These are signals sent by RTE during periods of tension on the electrical network. The Sirenergies tool informs you in real time to anticipate your uses.
Quels sont les cas d'usage concrets des différents types d'IA pour un acheteur d'énergie ?
Chaque modèle d'IA répond à un besoin spécifique du cycle d'achat :
- L’IA générative sert d'assistant de recherche pour synthétiser en quelques minutes des rapports de marché massifs (veille stratégique).
- L’IA déterministe est l'outil de la fiabilité : elle est indispensable pour le forecast (prévision de consommation) car ses calculs sont mathématiques et reproductibles.
- L’IA probabiliste est dédiée à la gestion des risques : elle simule des scénarios (ex: météo, stocks) pour quantifier l'incertitude sur les budgets futurs.
L'expertise humaine reste néanmoins indispensable.
Quelle est la différence concrète entre le transport et la distribution d'électricité ?
Le transport (RTE) correspond aux "autoroutes" de l’électricité. Il s’agit de transporter de très grandes quantités d'énergie sur de longues distances, depuis les centrales de production (nucléaires, barrages, parcs éoliens offshore) vers les régions de consommation.
La distribution (Enedis) s'apparente aux "routes départementales" et aux rues. Elle récupère l'électricité à la sortie du réseau de transport pour la livrer directement chez le client final, en abaissant la tension pour qu'elle soit utilisable par vos appareils.
Which taxes are particularly relevant for farms?
Farms are subject to taxes such as TICFE or TICGN. Sirenergies verifies their application, identifies cases of exemption and accompanies the procedures to reduce the tax burden.
Quelle est la différence entre un prix Forward et un prix Spot ?
Le prix Forward est fixé à l'avance (sécurité budgétaire), tandis que le prix Spot varie heure par heure selon le marché (opportunité mais risque élevé).
L'IA remplace-t-elle les analystes en énergie ?
Non. L'IA traite la donnée (data processing), mais l'analyste apporte la compréhension du contexte (market sentiment) et la prise de décision stratégique.
Pourquoi le mécanisme de capacité a-t-il été créé ?
Instauré en 2017, ce dispositif répond à un enjeu de sécurité nationale.
L'électricité ne se stockant pas à grande échelle, le réseau doit être capable de répondre instantanément à la demande, même lors des pics de froid hivernaux. Le mécanisme incite financièrement les producteurs à maintenir leurs centrales disponibles et les entreprises à réduire leur consommation (effacement) lors de ces périodes critiques.
How to optimize the taxes and contributions of a community?
Communities are subject to taxes such as TICFE or TICGN. Sirenergies analyzes invoices, identifies exemption possibilities and fixes possible errors to reduce the tax burden.
Pourquoi le kVA est-il crucial pour les entreprises ?
Parce que la puissance souscrite en kVA détermine le prix de l'abonnement et que tout dépassement peut entraîner des surcoûts importants.
How to properly define your subscribed power?
The subscribed power must be calculated according to the consumption profile and uses (heating, industrial processes, tertiary equipment). One fine analysis makes it possible to ensure the adequacy between real need and contract.
Mon entreprise peut-elle tirer profit des nouvelles Heures Creuses (11h-17h)?
Absolument. La réforme des heures creuses vise à absorber la surproduction solaire en milieu de journée. Les créneaux d'heures creuses se déplacent progressivement vers la plage 11h00 – 17h00, notamment en été. C'est une opportunité majeure pour les sites industriels ou tertiaires capables de flexibilité.
Conseil stratégique :
- Pilotage de la charge : Si vous avez des processus énergivores (fours, broyeurs, recharge de flotte de véhicules électriques, production de froid), déplacez leur fonctionnement sur la pause méridienne. L'électricité y sera moins chère et moins carbonée.
- Autoconsommation : C'est le moment idéal pour coupler cette tarification avec une installation photovoltaïque en toiture ou en ombrière de parking. Vous effacez votre consommation réseau au moment où le tarif serait le plus avantageux, ou vous profitez des prix bas du réseau si votre production ne suffit pas.
Qu'est-ce que le cosinus phi
C'est l'indicateur d'efficacité d'un appareil électrique ; il représente le ratio entre la puissance active (utile) et la puissance apparente (totale).
How to optimize taxes and contributions?
Tertiary companies are concerned by taxes such as TICFE or TICGN. Sirenergies checks the accuracy of invoices, identifies possible exemptions, and helps correct errors to sustainably reduce costs.
The answers to your questions
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