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Between crisis and transition, what is the energy situation in EU countries?

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Between crisis and transition, what is the energy situation in EU countries?

Mis à jour le

January 21, 2026

8

Min reading

Global warming, the Ukrainian conflict, energy dependence, energy dependence, rising energy prices, the dominance of fossil fuels: the European Union's energy picture may seem very bleak.

But amid this disheartening news, optimism is growing. In these times of crisis, the energy transition is well and truly underway.

Between European disparities, energy challenges and ambitious policies, SirEnergies takes stock of energy Europe in 2025.

A contrasting European energy landscape

With its 27 Member States, the European Union is characterised by its economic, social, cultural and geographical diversity. Energy is no exception. Of Success stories coexist with countries struggling to make progress in the energy transition.

Europe's energy balance

With 9.1% of global consumption, the European Union is the third largest consumer of energy in the world behind China and the United States. In 2023, its 449 million inhabitants consumed 1.3 billion tons of oil equivalent.

The most populated countries — namely France, Germany, Germany, Spain and Italy — remain the most energy-intensive countries.

The European energy mix is still dominated by fossil fuels, with oil at their head. But The share of renewables in final energy consumption keeps progressing. It increased from 16% in 2012 to 23% in 2022.

The major disparities between the states of the European Union

The European Union is characterized by strong energy disparities, between countries that are major consumers of fossil fuels and leading countries in renewable energies. These states are characterized by abundant natural resources and/or a proactive national policy in this area.

Northern countries are among the champions of green energies. In Norway, more than 90% of the electricity consumed comes from hydroelectric production. In Sweden and Finland, more than 60% of energy consumption is from renewable sources. This share exceeds 40% in Denmark thanks to the development of biomass And of theWind. A pioneer in the 2000s with its law on renewable energies, Germany remains a driving country. In 2024, it set a new record: 58% of its electricity production and 55% of its final consumption came from renewable energies.

The countries of central and eastern Europe like the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Greece, Greece, Malta or Hungary Struggling to get out of fossil fuels. In Poland, dependence on coal reaches 70%.

The current energy challenges of European Union countries

Rising electricity and gas prices, dependence on imports, dependence on fossil fuels: the challenges facing the European Union are numerous, weakening its energy security.

Dependence on fossil fuels

The energy of the European Union remains at 70% of fossil origin. Oil dominates (37%), followed by gas (21%) and coal (12%).

Oil remains the dominant energy in countries like Ireland, Belgium, the Netherlands, the Netherlands, Greece, Luxembourg, Malta or Cyprus. Estonia is distinguished by its electricity production mainly based on oil shales.

Coal still plays an important role in Poland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Slovenia, but also in Germany, which gradually closed its coal-fired power plants in 2020.

The share of fossil and renewable energies in national energy mixes translates The energy transition still slow and at two speeds European countries. Some less developed states remain marked by a outdated vision of energy, while more fortunate states are making progress in their transition.

Energy dependence on powers outside the EU

The war in Ukraine proved it: Europe's energy dependence remains strong. With the RepowerEU program and the diversification of energy supplies, countries are gradually freeing themselves from their dependence on Russian gas. But This dependency is moving to other regions such as the United States or the Middle East, suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The Average rate of dependence on imports Establishes itself in 63% in Europe. France remains a good student with a rate of 52% allowed by its nuclear power generation. An exporting country, Norway is an exception thanks to its large oil and natural gas reserves.

This dependence causes threats to Europe's energy security, weakened by geopolitical instabilities in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Rising energy prices

The European Union has been hit hard by the surge in electricity and gas prices triggered by the war in Ukraine. With inflation in excess of 10%, the energy shock has particularly hit Central and Eastern European countries, which are dependent on oil, coal and natural gas.

Since 2022, the EU has been mobilizing for keep prices at accessible levels for consumers. For example, she successfully implemented the joint gas purchases to better negotiate prices and diversify gas supplies. The AggregateEU mechanism has already proven its effectiveness. Twenty-five companies submitted tenders in the first international tender to supply more than 13.4 billion m³ of gas, exceeding the demand of European companies.

On the electricity side, in 2024, the European Union adopted a Reform of European electricity market, giving priority to long-term contracts. The objective? Stabilize prices on wholesale energy markets and guarantee financial visibility for consumers.

Despite the brake given to the rise in energy prices, in 2024, they remain a real challenge for European countries, whose competitiveness is under threat by lower prices around the world, especially in the United States.

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A determined European policy to meet energy challenges

The European Union has been tackling the energy and environmental issue head-on since the 2010s through ambitious objectives, strengthened regulations, substantial investments and the solidarity of countries.

Ambitious climate and energy goals

The European Union has set itself an ambitious goal: Making Europe the first continent carbon neutral In 2050, with a first stage to be reached in 2030.

This ambition is framed by a strengthened regulatory and policy framework. Since 2019, the European Green Deal supports this ambition, which is a symbol of the European Union's voluntary and determined energy-climate policy. Strengthened in 2022 as part of the RepowerEU plan and the renewable energies directive, the 2030 energy-climate objectives are divided into three parts:

  • Reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55% compared to 1990.
  • Achieve 42.5% renewable energies in the final consumption of energy.
  • Reduce final energy consumption by 11.7% compared to 2020 forecasts.

These objectives and the means of achieving them are set out by the Member States in national energy and climate plans (TIRE).

A strengthened regulatory and policy framework

In 2023, the European Union strengthened its regulatory framework to achieve the goal of reducing greenhouse gases. Three new mechanisms will be gradually put in place between 2023 and 2027.

The reform of the European emissions trading system (SEQE-EU)

Created in 2005, the European Emissions Trading System caps the level of greenhouse gas emissions allowed in the European Union.

Adopted in 2023, the reform provides forintegration of maritime transport, road transport and building And the Phasing out of free quotas. It reinforces the objective of reducing GHG emissions by 62% by 2030 in the sectors covered by the EU ETS.

The carbon border adjustment mechanism

More commonly known as “carbon tax”, the carbon adjustment mechanism at borders provides for the taxation of products imported from outside the European Union and whose production generates greenhouse gas emissions.

This decision is aimed at restore fairer competition between European companies subject to costly environmental constraints and companies from countries that are less demanding in this area.

The social climate fund

Fuelled in part by revenue from the European carbon market, the social climate fund should make it possible to: finance energy efficiency and carbon-free mobility actions, as well as the development of renewable energies.

Substantial investments in the energy sector

The European Union is committed through the European Investment Bank (EIB), whose shareholders are the Member States. In 2023, nearly 110 billion euros have been invested in renewable energies.

This proactive policy by Europe and its Member States proves its effectiveness. The share of renewable energies in European electricity production is constantly increasing. In 2023, it represented 44%. Solar capacity hits record highs, with an increase of 60% between 2021 and 2023. Wind energy has become the second source of European electricity in place of gas.

The European Union also finances infrastructure projects of common interest (PCI). In 2023, it invested 360 billion dollars in power grids, energy storage, transport electrification, carbon capture, maritime transport and green industry. The EU is banking on innovative technologies such as offshore wind and low-carbon hydrogen.

Strengthened collaboration between the Member States of the European Union

Following the crises, the European Union developed cross-border solidarity mechanisms.

On the infrastructure side, Europe supports the interconnection of networks And the creation of trans-European energy corridors. Since 2020, network operators must make at least 70% of their network capacity available for cross-border exchanges. This mechanism allows the reduction of imports from outside the European Union and to make the overproduction of electricity profitable.

In 2020, Europe also established a new financial instrument for solidarity: the Just Transition Fund. The objective? Support countries and territories hard hit by the economic and social consequences of the energy transition, for example following the closure of polluting industries or mines. This fund invests in companies that create jobs in the green energy or carbon-free mobility sectors, as well as in the retraining of workers.

What are the prospects for the European Union's energy future?

In recent years, the European Union has taken the turn of the energy transition with determination. Despite a two-speed transition, the energy balance is promising with strong growth in renewable energies, determined investments and solidarity between countries. However, dependence on imports and fossil fuels still dominates, weakening the European energy system. Is achieving carbon neutrality in Europe in 2050 possible under these conditions? The question remains unresolved in a context shaken up by economic and geopolitical crises. Only a strong will, the combined action of all actors and a shared and fair effort can transform this mirage into reality.

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The answers to your questions

Comment mobiliser les collaborateurs autour d'un projet de sobriété énergétique ?

La réussite d'un projet collectif énergie repose sur trois piliers fondamentaux :

  • La visibilité : On ne gère bien que ce que l'on mesure. Partager les données de consommation via des outils comme l'application Pilott donne un sens concret aux efforts fournis.
  • L'incarnation : Nommer des ambassadeurs énergie internes permet de diffuser les bonnes pratiques par l'exemple et de lever les freins opérationnels propres à chaque métier.
  • La gamification : Transformer la contrainte en défi (challenges inter-services, concours de l'équipe la plus sobre) crée une dynamique positive et renforce la cohésion d'équipe autour des enjeux RSE.

Pourquoi le seuil de 78 €/MWh est-il critiqué par les experts ?

Ce seuil est jugé élevé par rapport aux prévisions actuelles du marché. Si le prix de l'électricité reste en dessous de 78 €/MWh, les entreprises ne bénéficieront d'aucune redistribution. Cela signifie que la protection promise par la réforme pourrait être inexistante dans un marché baissier, d'où l'importance de stratégies de sourcing agiles et d'outils de monitoring comme Pilott.

Fin de l'ARENH au 31 décembre 2025 : comment sécuriser mon budget énergie pour 2026?

La fin de l'ARENH (Accès Régulé à l'Électricité Nucléaire Historique) marque l'arrêt de la fourniture d'électricité à prix fixe garanti (42 €/MWh).
Dès le 1er janvier 2026, les entreprises sont exposées aux prix de marché, mais deux nouveaux mécanismes de régulation prennent le relais, bien que leur logique soit différente :

  1. Le Versement Nucléaire Universel (VNU) : Ce n'est pas un tarif d'achat, mais un mécanisme de redistribution a posteriori. Si les prix de marché de l'électricité nucléaire dépassent un certain seuil (environ 78 €/MWh selon les estimations pour 2026), EDF reversera 50 % des revenus excédentaires aux consommateurs. Attention : Si les prix de marché restent modérés (sous les 78 €/MWh), le VNU ne se déclenche pas. Il agit comme une assurance contre les flambées extrêmes, pas comme un tarif bas garanti.
  2. Les CAPN (Contrats d'Allocation de Production Nucléaire) : Réservés aux industriels électro-intensifs, ces contrats de long terme (10-15 ans) permettent de réserver une part de la production nucléaire en échange d'une participation aux coûts du parc. Ils offrent une visibilité sur le long terme pour 50 à 70 % des volumes consommés.

Conseil stratégique : Ne comptez pas sur le VNU pour réduire votre facture en 2026 si les marchés restent stables. Auditez vos contrats dès maintenant pour intégrer une part de prix fixe ou explorer des "Power Purchase Agreements" (PPA) pour sécuriser vos coûts sur le long terme.

Mon entreprise peut-elle tirer profit des nouvelles Heures Creuses (11h-17h)?

Absolument. La réforme des heures creuses vise à absorber la surproduction solaire en milieu de journée. Les créneaux d'heures creuses se déplacent progressivement vers la plage 11h00 – 17h00, notamment en été. C'est une opportunité majeure pour les sites industriels ou tertiaires capables de flexibilité.

Conseil stratégique :

  • Pilotage de la charge : Si vous avez des processus énergivores (fours, broyeurs, recharge de flotte de véhicules électriques, production de froid), déplacez leur fonctionnement sur la pause méridienne. L'électricité y sera moins chère et moins carbonée.
  • Autoconsommation : C'est le moment idéal pour coupler cette tarification avec une installation photovoltaïque en toiture ou en ombrière de parking. Vous effacez votre consommation réseau au moment où le tarif serait le plus avantageux, ou vous profitez des prix bas du réseau si votre production ne suffit pas.

L'IA remplace-t-elle les analystes en énergie ?

Non. L'IA traite la donnée (data processing), mais l'analyste apporte la compréhension du contexte (market sentiment) et la prise de décision stratégique.

Pourquoi l'IA ne peut-elle pas prédire le prix de l'énergie avec exactitude ?

Car les marchés dépendent de facteurs exogènes imprévisibles (géopolitique, météo soudaine, politique) que les modèles basés sur l'historique ne peuvent pas anticiper, tout comme on ne prédit pas le Loto.

Qu'est-ce que le dispositif VNU qui remplace l'ARENH en 2026 ?

La Vente de Nucléaire Universelle (VNU) est le nouveau mécanisme de régulation des prix de l'électricité en France. Contrairement à l'ARENH, il ne s'agit plus d'un volume fixe à prix réduit, mais d'une redistribution financière des revenus excédentaires d'EDF aux consommateurs, basée sur les prix de marché et les coûts de production du nucléaire historique.

Quel sera l'impact réel du VNU sur ma facture d'électricité professionnelle ?

L'impact dépendra des prix de marché. Le mécanisme prévoit une redistribution si les prix dépassent 78 €/MWh. Cependant, si les cours restent bas (actuellement autour de 60 €/MWh), le dispositif ne s'activera pas. La facture sera alors indexée à 100% sur les prix de marché, rendant le choix du fournisseur et du moment d'achat critiques.

The answers to your questions

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