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Nord Stream 2: The underside of a rebirth
Mis à jour le
January 26, 2026
8
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March 2025 marks a rebound in the soap opera Nord Stream 2.
Never put into service, could the gas pipeline finally become operational? This is what recent confidential discussions between Russia and the United States suggest. While there are many obstacles in the way of Nord Stream 2, the latest strategic changes by the major powers show that energy is a powerful geopolitical weapon.
Between unexpected alliances, environmental controversies, behind-the-scenes negotiations and strategic turnarounds, dive into the heart of energy geopolitics.
2005 — 2021: Nord Stream 2, a strategic energy project in the heart of Europe
Nord Stream is a Russian-European project that was born in 1997.
Its objective: to secure the transport of Russian natural gas to Germany. After the commissioning of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in 2012, Nord Stream 2 aims to increase gas supply in Europe.
The origin of the Nord Stream 2 project
The Nord Stream gas pipeline Connects Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. It consists of two parallel pipelines.
Nord Stream 1 is the first subsea pipeline commissioned in 2012, after six years of work. Before its sabotage in September 2022, Nord Stream 1 carried up to 55.5 billion m³ of gas per year, over 1,224 kilometers.
Nord Stream 2 is its twin pipe.
Its objective? Doubling total natural gas delivery capacity from Russia to Europe, i.e. 110 billion m³ per year. Although completed in 2021, Nord Stream 2 was never operational...
The Nord Stream, a geopolitical and economic infrastructure
The Nord Stream gas pipeline project was born from a Russian-European energy alliance :
- The Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline is owned by Nord Stream AG, owned by the Russian energy giant Gazprom and four European companies (Wintershall Dea, Uniper, Gasunie, Engie).
- The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is owned by Nord Stream 2 AG, which is the exclusive property of Gazprom. Its ten billion euro construction was half financed by European companies Shell, Wintershall Dea, Uniper, OMV, and Engie.
This win/win strategic alliance between Europe and Russia lasted for fifteen years. Pillar of European energy security, Nord Stream 1 guarantees the supply of natural gas to Europe until 2022. Before the war in Ukraine, the gas pipeline carried 55% of German gas imports, 40% of which were sold to other European countries.
In return, Russia asserts its supremacy on the European gas market, forging a close link with Europe. This relationship — admittedly imperfect — contributes to maintaining geopolitical stability in Europe, interrupted by the invasion of Ukraine.
2022: The end of Nord Stream 2
The year 2022 marks the end of European imports of Russian natural gas through submarine pipelines. In February, Germany suspended the commissioning of Nord Stream 2. In September, the sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline put an end to its operation.
Nord Stream 2, a collateral victim of the war in Ukraine
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. It is the start of a escalation of sanctions and counter-sanctions between Europe and Russia.
Energy is becoming a geopolitical weapon.
On February 25, the European Union announced a first package of sanctions. At the end of February, the cleaver fell on Nord Stream 2. Germany is suspending its certification. Russia is responding by reducing its gas supplies to Germany via Nord Stream 1.
In September 2022, the operation to sabotage the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline brings the final stop to the delivery of Russian gas by submarine route. The European Union is reorienting its purchases towards liquefied natural gas (LNG) and new suppliers to reduce its dependence on Russian energy.
US sanctions and diplomatic tensions
As soon as it was built, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline drew criticism. Until 2022, the United States takes a dim view of the strengthening of the energy alliance between Russia and Europe.
Fearing Russian competition for its liquefied natural gas exports (GNL), President Donald Trump took sanctions in 2019. The freezing of assets and the revocation of American visas for companies are temporarily halting work. An agreement was reached in 2021 between Germany and the United States. It guarantees the continuation of the transit of natural gas via Ukraine.
2025: towards a re-birth of Nord Stream 2?
The Nord Stream 2 company is fighting to avoid bankruptcy. But in March 2025, Russian-American discussions revived the idea of a hypothetical commissioning.
A U-turn in American strategy
The second Trump administration seems to have changed tack. After strongly opposing Nord Stream 2, the United States would bet on its future. According to several sources, the gas pipeline is at the heart of bilateral American-Russian negotiations on the war in Ukraine.
In March 2025, discussions would have raised the possible purchase of Nord Stream 2 by an American investor. In a context where the future of American LNG remains uncertain, the ownership of the gas pipeline would allow the United States to controlling natural gas flows in Europe. By bringing the American state closer to Russia, this purchase could also distance the Chinese rival.
Uncertainty about German energy policy
Germany's attitude will be decisive for the future of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It can relaunch its commissioning by lifting the suspension of certification.
All eyes are now on German conservatives. Can their victory in the February 2025 federal election change the situation?
Parliamentarians are relaunching the debate, such as Thomas Bareiss in a post on social networks: “When peace is restored and the arms go quiet between Russia and Ukraine, relationships will normalize, embargoes will be lifted sooner or later and, of course, gas will be able to flow again, perhaps this time in a pipeline under American control.”
This position is supported by the German industrialists. Nord Stream 2 gives rise to hope fora drop in gas prices and an economic recovery. It would also allow Germany to reaffirm its geopolitical role in Europe, as a gas hub.
Despite these initial positions, uncertainty persists. The position of the future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will be decisive. If in 2022, he called for the immediate end of energy dependence on Russia, a change in position would mark a historic reversal by the Conservatives.
What other European reactions?
Faced with the possible restart of Nord Stream 2, Europe is balancing concerns, oppositions and pragmatism. Few countries have spoken out following the Russian-American discussions.
Wary of Russia, The countries of the East (Poland, Baltic countries, Slovakia, Czech Republic...) should confirm their historic opposition to Nord Stream 2 which bypasses the transit of gas through Ukraine.
The European Union is also an obstacle. In 2018, the European executive declared that the” Nord Stream 2 did not contribute to EU energy policy goals such as energy security or the diversification of supplies. ” If the current European Presidency has not spoken, a directive imposes binding rules on Gazprom. In the name of competition, it requires the opening up of the use of the gas pipeline to other companies. In November 2024, the European Court of Justice confirmed this obligation by rejecting Gazprom's appeal against this directive.
What are the consequences if Nord Stream 2 is put into service?
The potential commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline crystallizes tensions. Economic, geopolitical and ecological interests are opposed.
Nord Stream 2: a real economic impact for Europe?
Fuelled by the war in Ukraine, the surge in energy prices has destabilized European economies. Germany has been hit hard, with an economy that has been in recession for three years and a manufacturing industry in crisis.
From a strictly economic perspective, the commissioning of Nord Stream 2 raises hope. Reopening the Russian tap could lower natural gas prices and reduce consumers' energy bills.
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Nord Stream 2: a risk for Europe's energy independence?
Real electroshock, the war in Ukraine revealed the limits of energy sovereignty of Europe.
Since 2022, the European Union has been acting to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas by 2027. The RepowerEU map combines two strategies:
- La diversification of energy sources, based on the acceleration of renewables.
- La diversification of energy suppliers with the purchase of natural gas from new countries (Norway, Algeria, Algeria, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan, United Kingdom, Libya...), and the import of American LNG.
Would the commissioning of Nord Stream 2 mean a going back? Could it threaten Europe by recreating a double dependence on energy to Russia, a contested partner, and to the United States, an ally that has become unpredictable?
Is Nord Stream 2 a negative signal for the climate?
Natural gas has a high environmental impact. According to ADEME, it emits 243 g eQ.co2/kWh, compared to 44 g eq.CO2/kWh for photovoltaic electricity and 14 g eQ.co2/kWh for onshore wind.
The resumption of the delivery of Russian natural gas to Europe would be bad news for the environment. By facilitating access to polluting fossil gas, Nord Stream 2 would send a negative signal for the climate.
Less pressurized, European countries could Favoring natural gas again at the expense of the energy transition and renewable energies. Nord Stream 2 could mean a step backwards for the planet.
To conclude...
The commissioning of Nord Stream 2 remains hypothetical in the face of numerous technical, financial, legal and geopolitical obstacles. But this pipeline illustrates the central role of energy in the global geopolitical and economic debate. In a world where powers are reshuffling their cards, the future is uncertain. The opening of Nord Stream 2 highlights contradictions and poses fundamental questions about the hierarchy of global priorities: geopolitics, economy, energy sovereignty or climate?
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The answers to your questions
Quelle est la différence entre un prix Forward et un prix Spot ?
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Le prix Forward est fixé à l'avance (sécurité budgétaire), tandis que le prix Spot varie heure par heure selon le marché (opportunité mais risque élevé).
Quels sont les cas d'usage concrets des différents types d'IA pour un acheteur d'énergie ?
Chaque modèle d'IA répond à un besoin spécifique du cycle d'achat :
- L’IA générative sert d'assistant de recherche pour synthétiser en quelques minutes des rapports de marché massifs (veille stratégique).
- L’IA déterministe est l'outil de la fiabilité : elle est indispensable pour le forecast (prévision de consommation) car ses calculs sont mathématiques et reproductibles.
- L’IA probabiliste est dédiée à la gestion des risques : elle simule des scénarios (ex: météo, stocks) pour quantifier l'incertitude sur les budgets futurs.
L'expertise humaine reste néanmoins indispensable.
Mon entreprise peut-elle tirer profit des nouvelles Heures Creuses (11h-17h)?
Absolument. La réforme des heures creuses vise à absorber la surproduction solaire en milieu de journée. Les créneaux d'heures creuses se déplacent progressivement vers la plage 11h00 – 17h00, notamment en été. C'est une opportunité majeure pour les sites industriels ou tertiaires capables de flexibilité.
Conseil stratégique :
- Pilotage de la charge : Si vous avez des processus énergivores (fours, broyeurs, recharge de flotte de véhicules électriques, production de froid), déplacez leur fonctionnement sur la pause méridienne. L'électricité y sera moins chère et moins carbonée.
- Autoconsommation : C'est le moment idéal pour coupler cette tarification avec une installation photovoltaïque en toiture ou en ombrière de parking. Vous effacez votre consommation réseau au moment où le tarif serait le plus avantageux, ou vous profitez des prix bas du réseau si votre production ne suffit pas.
Pourquoi l'IA ne peut-elle pas prédire le prix de l'énergie avec exactitude ?
Car les marchés dépendent de facteurs exogènes imprévisibles (géopolitique, météo soudaine, politique) que les modèles basés sur l'historique ne peuvent pas anticiper, tout comme on ne prédit pas le Loto.
Pourquoi le seuil de 78 €/MWh est-il critiqué par les experts ?
Ce seuil est jugé élevé par rapport aux prévisions actuelles du marché. Si le prix de l'électricité reste en dessous de 78 €/MWh, les entreprises ne bénéficieront d'aucune redistribution. Cela signifie que la protection promise par la réforme pourrait être inexistante dans un marché baissier, d'où l'importance de stratégies de sourcing agiles et d'outils de monitoring comme Pilott.
L'IA remplace-t-elle les analystes en énergie ?
Non. L'IA traite la donnée (data processing), mais l'analyste apporte la compréhension du contexte (market sentiment) et la prise de décision stratégique.
Fin de l'ARENH au 31 décembre 2025 : comment sécuriser mon budget énergie pour 2026?
La fin de l'ARENH (Accès Régulé à l'Électricité Nucléaire Historique) marque l'arrêt de la fourniture d'électricité à prix fixe garanti (42 €/MWh).
Dès le 1er janvier 2026, les entreprises sont exposées aux prix de marché, mais deux nouveaux mécanismes de régulation prennent le relais, bien que leur logique soit différente :
- Le Versement Nucléaire Universel (VNU) : Ce n'est pas un tarif d'achat, mais un mécanisme de redistribution a posteriori. Si les prix de marché de l'électricité nucléaire dépassent un certain seuil (environ 78 €/MWh selon les estimations pour 2026), EDF reversera 50 % des revenus excédentaires aux consommateurs. Attention : Si les prix de marché restent modérés (sous les 78 €/MWh), le VNU ne se déclenche pas. Il agit comme une assurance contre les flambées extrêmes, pas comme un tarif bas garanti.
- Les CAPN (Contrats d'Allocation de Production Nucléaire) : Réservés aux industriels électro-intensifs, ces contrats de long terme (10-15 ans) permettent de réserver une part de la production nucléaire en échange d'une participation aux coûts du parc. Ils offrent une visibilité sur le long terme pour 50 à 70 % des volumes consommés.
Conseil stratégique : Ne comptez pas sur le VNU pour réduire votre facture en 2026 si les marchés restent stables. Auditez vos contrats dès maintenant pour intégrer une part de prix fixe ou explorer des "Power Purchase Agreements" (PPA) pour sécuriser vos coûts sur le long terme.
Qu'est-ce que le dispositif VNU qui remplace l'ARENH en 2026 ?
La Vente de Nucléaire Universelle (VNU) est le nouveau mécanisme de régulation des prix de l'électricité en France. Contrairement à l'ARENH, il ne s'agit plus d'un volume fixe à prix réduit, mais d'une redistribution financière des revenus excédentaires d'EDF aux consommateurs, basée sur les prix de marché et les coûts de production du nucléaire historique.
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